English Premier League Betting Preview

After a long international break, the Premier League is back with 10 exciting fixtures in round 5. Liverpool get the round underway by hosting Newcastle, with Wolves against Chelsea looking like the best of the 12 am fixtures. 20th placed Watford will host Arsenal early on Monday morning, while Villa close out the round by playing host to West Ham on Tuesday. We’ll preview each of the 10 upcoming matches and identify where the value lies from a betting perspective. Try out free EPL tips and multi bet tips below.

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Saturday, September 14, 2019

Liverpool vs Newcaslte

Venue: Anfield | Start: 9:30 pm (AEST)

Liverpool have gotten off to another flying start this season, winning all 4 games and sitting 2 points clear in 1st place. They’ve had a relatively kind set of fixtures so far, beating Arsenal 3-1 at home in their only real test. The expected points table suggests they’ve been fairly lucky so far, with the numbers giving them 7.69 points through their first 4. With a Champions League tie with Napoli in midweek, it’ll be interesting to see how the squad is rotated.

Newcastle have rebounded nicely after a tough start to the season, managing 4 points in their last 2 games. They were especially impressive in match week 3, grinding out a 1-0 win at Tottenham. The lack of reliable goal threats up front has been their major weakness this season, having not scored more than 1 goal a game all season. Expected points has them as the 2nd worst side in the league so far at just 3.16 points.

This has all the makings of another incredibly routine Liverpool home win. I expect their strong defence to negate Newcastle’s lackluster attack, while their always dangerous front three should be among the goals. 3-0 Liverpool at $6.50 is my projected scoreline, making Liverpool -2 at $2.10 also look like decent value. In terms of totals, I do like the over 2.5 goals market, although I don’t see both sides getting on the scoresheet here.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Sunday, September 15, 2019

Brighton vs Burnley

Venue: Amex Stadium | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

A relatively bright start to the campaign has come undone for Brighton in recent weeks, currently sitting in 16th spot. They’ve lost a combined 6-0 to Southampton and Man City in their last two games, although they did play some decent football against City. New manager Graham Potter has gone to an exciting 3-4-3 formation, which should help create attacking opportunities. The expected points metric has them firmly mid-table at just under 5 points so far.

Burnley continue to be a very tough side to play against, currently sitting in 12th position. This is very much in line with their expected points, suggesting they’ve been decent so far. Their last two performances haven’t been as impressive, losing 3-1 to Sunderland in the League Cup and 3-0 to Liverpool in the League. They weren’t a particularly good road side last season, managing just 4 wins and 17 total points.

This has all the makings of a very tight contest between two evenly matched teams. I expect Burnley to sit back and soak up pressure here, taking advantage of Brighton’s high line on the counter-attack. The draw at $3.10 seems like good value in this one, with a 1-1 scoreline at $6 probably the most likely. Burnley +1 at the handicap is also probably worth a bet, just in case they pull off the upset. I can see both sides getting on the scoresheet but under 2.5 goals is probably the safer overall bet.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Manchester United vs Leicester

Venue: Old Trafford | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

After a few decent results to start the season, Manchester United have faded of late and currently sit 8th with 5 points. Their loss to Crystal Palace a fortnight ago was particularly troubling and they let a lead slip against a 10-man Southampton side last time out. It hasn’t been all bad for United though, with the expected points suggesting they’ve been the second-best side in the league. Their home record last season was decent but unspectacular, managing 10 wins and 6th place in the form table.

Leicester currently sit 3rd in the table and have emerged as a real dark horse to grab a top 6 spot. They’re yet to taste defeat in any competition this season and enter this matchup after consecutive league wins. Jamie Vardy continues to provide an excellent option up front, already scoring 3 goals so far. Leicester were relatively strong on the road last season, managing 25 points and 7th spot in the form table.

Although United have struggled of late, there could be some value backing them at decent $1.80 odds. They’ve put up some solid numbers this season and should be in a better position in the table. I think 2-1 at $8.50 is a fairly likely result, especially given Leicester’s talent up front. The handicap draw at $2.80 is also a decent option, with 1-0 and 3-2 also within the realms of possibility. In terms of total markets, I like the BTTS bet and over 2.5 goals in this one.

Head to Head: Manchester United
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Manchester United
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sheffield United vs Southampton

Venue: Bramall Lane | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Sheffield United have had a respectable start to the campaign, sitting in 10th place with 5 points during the first 4 games. Their last result was particularly impressive, coming from 2 goals down to draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. New signing Callum Robinson continues to look lively up front, scoring his first goal for the club in that match. Their solid early start is far from a fluke, with expected points suggesting they should be 8th so far.

Southampton haven’t been all that consistent, but 4 points from 4 games has them in 13th position. They got their maiden win against Brighton in match week 3, before a solid win over Fulham in the Cup and decent Draw with United last time out. Their strength appears to be a very solid frontline that features talents like Danny Ings, Nathan Redmond, and Che Adams. The Saints need to improve on their poor road form from last season, where they managed just 4 wins and 16 total points.

Although Sheffield United have played well so far, I still feel as though this will be a relatively even match. I think the draw at $3.10 is the most likely outcome in this match, with a nervy 1-1 draw at $6 looking particularly good value. Taking Southampton at the +1 handicap is also a decent option, just in case they pull off the upset. Another solid hedge is taking BTTS and under 2.5 goals, both of which can realistically cash together.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Tottenham have had a somewhat shaky start to the season, sitting in 9th position with 5 points so far. They haven’t really looked impressive at any point so far, particularly during the last 3 weeks. A loss to Newcastle at home is undoubtedly their worst result, although coming back from 2 goals down against Arsenal did redeem them somewhat. Although they were only 5th in the home form table last season, having their brand-new stadium should provide a better home record this season.

Despite being predicted as a dark horse for relegation, Crystal Palace find themselves in the top 4 after their first 4 fixtures. They won at Old Trafford in match week 3, backing this up with a controversial 1-0 win over Aston Villa. Jordan Ayew has looked particularly solid up front, replacing Benteke and netting in each of the last 2 wins. The stats say they’ve been pretty lucky so far, with expected points actually having them 4th from bottom. Palace were actually one of the better road sides last season, managing top 6th in the form table with 29 points.

Although Palace have started the season strongly, I have to think Tottenham get the win here. They’ve got the talent edge all over the park and really should restrict Palace’s chances. They’re currently only paying $1.30 to win, although $2.25 to win to nil seems like a decent value alternative. I like a 3-0 projected score line at $9.50, meaning Spurs -1 at $2 and over 2.5 goals are also in play. With Spurs’ defensive advantage, I like ‘no’ in the BTTS market to round things out.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Wolves vs Chelsea

Venue: Molineux | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Wolves have had a rather poor start to the campaign, sitting in 17th place with just 3 points. They are yet to win a game this season, although did manage decent draws against Leicester and Man United. They lost 3-2 to Everton last time out, compounded by Willy Boly earning a red card suspension. Wolves were a very solid home side last season, picking up 34 points in 19 games. After finally getting a Europa League break, fatigue shouldn’t be as much of an issue here.

Although it has been an exciting start to life under Frank Lampard, the results haven’t necessarily been there. The Blues currently sit in 11th spot with 1 win, 2 draws, and a defeat to start off. Their last result was particularly disappointing, failing to win at home to newly promoted Sheffield United after leading 2-0. One positive is that the goals have been coming for Chelsea, scoring 5 in their last 2 games. They do have a Champions League game this Wednesday, which may impact the lineup selection.

As the odds would suggest, this is a relatively tough contest to call. I think both sides match up rather evenly and a draw at $3.25 looks like the most likely outcome. Frank Lampard’s style lends itself to goals being scored and I’m backing the BTTS and over 2.5 goals markets here. In terms of a score prediction, 2-2 at $14 lines up with all our other selections and provides a very tasty payout.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Norwich vs Man City

Venue: Carrow Road | Start: 2:30 am (AEST)

Despite some exciting attacking football, Norwich find themselves in 19th spot after the first 4 games. They had a nice 3-1 win against Newcastle in week 2, although they’ve also had tough losses to Liverpool, Chelsea, and West Ham. The loss at West Ham last time out was especially poor as they had just 3 shots on target and failed to score. Expected points has them slightly better than their record this season, suggesting they should be in 16th place based on the numbers.

Man City have unsurprisingly dominated so far, currently sitting in 2nd place on 10 points. They have the best goal difference in the division and expected points has them as comfortably the best team. Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero continue to bang them in for fun, combining for 11 goals so far. Star CB Aymeric Laporte has been ruled out for a few months, which could open up some vulnerabilities at the back. That said, City were dynamite on the road last season, picking up a league-leading 14 wins and 44 points.

While it does look like a potential banana skin on paper, the $1.14 for City to win shows that the bookies disagree. I’d have to think that City get the job done here, mainly due to their excellent attack against a shaky Norwich defence. 2-0 at $9.50 looks like fairly good value, with the handicap draw (City by 2) also shaping up as a decent bet. I think City rally with Laporte out and deliver a strong defensive effort, meaning ‘no’ in the BTTS market and under 2.5 goals are good totals bets.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Bournemouth vs Everton

Venue: Vitality Stadium | Start: 11:00 pm (AEST)

Bournemouth have somewhat struggled out of the gate, sitting in 15th place after their first 4 matches. They’ve had an especially tough last fortnight, losing 3-1 to City at home and 3-1 to Leicester away. They have managed to score in every game this season, with Wilson and King forming a formidable duo up front. Expected points actually has them in the relegation zone, indicative of their struggles so far. They’ve been a solid home side throughout this Premier League stint, earning a decent 29 points last season.

Everton have lived up to the pre-season hype so far, sitting nicely in 6th position. They’ve had two impressive league wins in their last 3 and also advanced to the next round of the cup. Their only blemish this season was at Aston Villa in match week 3, where they had a very poor 2-0 loss. The attack finally showed what they’re capable of last time out, with Richarlison netting twice in a 3-2 win. Everton were somewhat poor on the road last season, picking up just 5 wins and 20 total points.

Everton have impressed so far and I think they can build on their solid start here. The attack is finally starting to click and should create numerous opportunities against a vulnerable Bournemouth defence. While $2.40 for the win is decent value, a 2-1 scoreline at $10 looks even better. The handicap draw (Everton by 1) at $4.33 is another solid option as I don’t anticipate a thrashing here. In terms of totals, I like both BTTS and over 2.5 goals in what should be a free-flowing affair.

Head to Head: Everton
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Everton
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, September 16, 2019

Watford vs Arsenal

Venue: Vicarage Road | Start: 1:30 am (AEST)

Watford have had a surprisingly poor start to the campaign, rooted to the bottom of the table after the first 4. Their schedule hasn’t been all that tough either, not yet facing any of the traditional top 6. Their last performance was definitely their best, a 1-1 away draw at Newcastle that they edged statistically. Expected points suggests they’ve been rather unlucky this season and should be mid-table in 14th position. They are typically a fairly strong home side, picking up 27 points in home league games last season.

Arsenal strong start has come undone in recent weeks, although they still maintain a solid 5th position. They were thoroughly outclassed in a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool in match week 3, also blowing a 2-goal lead against Spurs last time out. Their lethal strike force has been among the goals, with both Aubameyang and Lacazette netting last week. This Arsenal side definitely aren’t analytics darlings, with expected points suggesting they should be in 13th place so far. Arsenal’s road struggles last season were well documented, sitting 8th in the form table with 25 points.

Despite a poor start to the season, I don’t think Watford are as bad as their results suggest. They’ve had a good record against Arsenal in recent years and should be well up for this in a primetime clash. I like the draw at $3.60 in this one, with Watford +1 also being decent at the line. 1-1 looks like the most likely score line at $7.50, with an outside shot of a 2-2 goal fest at $12. In line with the 1-1, I think BTTS and under 2.5 goals is a decent hedge that could realistically both cash.

Head to Head: Watford
Half-time/Full-time: Under 2.5
Over/Under 2.5: Draw/Watford
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Aston Villa vs West Ham

Venue: Villa Park | Start: 5:00 am (AEST)

Aston Villa have had a shaky return to the top flight, finding themselves in the relegation zone through the first 4 games. They managed an impressive win over Everton in match week 3, although they’ve certainly struggled otherwise. Their loss to Crystal Palace last time out was particularly egregious, with refereeing decisions costing them at the end. They spent a ton of money on a brand new squad of players in the summer and this break may give them the extra time needed to gel.

West Ham have laid the foundations for a strong 2019-20 season, currently sitting in 7th position. They’ve earned an impressive 7 points from their last 3 games, managing wins against both Watford and Norwich. New signing Sebastian Haller seems to be finding his feet, netting 3 times in the two recent wins. The Hammers were an average road side last season, earning 21 points and 11th place in the form table.

West Ham have impressed so far this season and definitely look like an outside shot at the Europa League. Villa have been hard done by in a few games this season and I expect them to be well up for this. A draw at $3.50 looks like the best value bet to me, with 1-1 at $7.50 again looking like the most likely outcome. I don’t see a hugely high scoring match here, but BTTS and under 2.5 goals is again a decent middle opportunity.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: