English Premier League Betting Preview

After a few shock results last week, the Premier League is back with another 10 fixtures this weekend. Chelsea had their best win of the season last weekend and will play host to Chelsea in the match of the round. Man City had a rare defeat at Norwich last week and will look to put things right as they host Watford. Leicester and Tottenham are also both looking like strong contenders and they’ll do battle in the early Saturday kick-off. We’ve previewed each of the 10 games this weekend, identifying where the value lies

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Saturday

Southampton vs Bournemouth

Venue: St Mary’s | Start: 05:00 (AEST)

Southampton: The Saints have had a decent start to the campaign, sitting comfortably mid-table after the first 5. They managed their second straight road league win last time out, taking care of Sheffield United 1-0. Expected points has them sitting 9th in the table thus far, suggesting their underlying stats are also very solid. Highly touted youngster Moussa Djenepo has started the season very strongly, already bagging twice and scoring the winner last week.

Bournemouth: The Cherries have also started the season strongly, finding themselves in 8th spot. They had a particularly solid win last time out, a comfortable 3-1 home display against Everton. Callum Wilson continues to score for fun up front, adding another brace and forming a lethal partnership with Josh King. Bournemouth were relatively weak away last season, managing just 16 road points all season.

Betting Analysis: Southampton are really starting to take shape under Hasenhuttl and I think they can get the job done here. Bournemouth have struggled mightily on the road in recent years, a trend which could be exacerbated in a primetime game. Southampton look like decent value at $1.91, with 2-1 at $8.50 my projected scoreline. I also like Southampton to win by 1 goal at $3.40, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals handy bets on the total markets.

 

Head to Head: Southampton | $2 – Ladbrokes
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Southampton | $5 – Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals | $1.75 – BetEasy
Both Teams Score: Yes

Leicester vs Tottenham

Venue: King Power Stadium | Start: 21:30 (AEST)

Leicester: The Foxes have started the season fairly strongly, although they slipped up at Old Trafford last week. That said, they still find themselves in the top 6 and should compete for a place in Europe all season. The spine of the team is still very strong, with Schmeichel, Vardy, Tielemans, and Ndidi all looking like quality options. The King Power has turned into somewhat of a fortress, with Leicester picking up a solid 27 home points last season.

Tottenham: Despite a mixed start to the campaign, Spurs still have the inside track on a top 4 finish. They got things together against Crystal Palace last week, looking back to their best in a 4-goal first half. A midweek trip to Greece isn’t ideal from a preparation standpoint, especially with this being an early kick-off. That said, Spurs have been a consistently good road side under Pochettino, picking up 11 away wins last season.

Betting Analysis: Both sides should be up there this season and this definitely projects as the best of the Saturday slate. I think the midweek travel will be a real hindrance to Spurs and can see a strong Leicester side getting a result here. A draw at $3.40 seems like really good value, with the 1-1 scoreline at $6.50 the most likely outcome. The Leicester +1 handicap is a decent line bet, while I see under 2.5 goals cashing on the totals side.

 

Head to Head: Draw | $3.45 – BetEasy
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Draw | $13 – Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes | $1.70 – Sportsbet

Sunday

Burnley vs Norwich

Venue: Turf Moor | Start: 00:00 (AEST)

Burnley: Burnley have had a relatively average start to the campaign, sitting 14th in the table through 5 games. They’ve been competitive in all but one fixture this season, managing a well-earned point at Brighton last week. Ashley Barnes has looked particularly good up front, netting 4 times in the first 3 games. They’ve been a much better side at home in the Sean Dyche era, especially against newly promoted sides.

Norwich: A somewhat sluggish start for Norwich was saved last weekend by a shock 3-2 home win over Man City. The Canaries currently sit 13th in the table and have managed an impressive 9 goals so far. Their attack is certainly centred around Teemu Pukki, who already has 6 goals on the campaign. Expected points aren’t quite as bullish as Norwich, with their underlying numbers suggesting they should be 16th based on early action.

Betting Analysis: After a feel-good win last week, I can really see Norwich crashing back to earth here. They haven’t picked up a road point all season and Turf Moor has become a real fortress under Dyche. I like the $1.91 on offer for Burnley straight up here, with the Dyche special of 1-0 available at $9.50. Burnley by 1 goal is also a solid option, as is under 2.5 goals on the totals side.

 

Head to Head: Burnley | $2 – Beteasy
Half-time/Full-time: Burnley/Burnley | $3.10 – Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals | $2.16 – Sportsbet
Both Teams Score: No | $2.37 – Sportsbet

Man City vs Watford

Venue: Etihad | Start: 00:00 (AEST)

Man City: Despite suffering a shock loss at Norwich last weekend, City still sit 2nd in the league with a + 10 goal difference. The defence looked particularly vulnerable without Aymeric Laporte, gifting Norwich 3 relatively easy goals. A midweek trip to Ukraine isn’t easy from a scheduling perspective, although I know they’ll be looking for a positive reaction here. The Etihad has unsurprisingly been a fortress under Guardiola, with City winning 18 of 19 home league games last season.

Watford: Watford surprisingly find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table, one of only 2 sides not to win this season. They looked better at home to Arsenal last weekend, coming from 2 goals behind and nearly winning outright. Expected points thinks this is a much better team than their results suggest, placing them 8th based on statistics so far. Their road league form was solid last season, picking up 23 points which placed them 9th in the form table.

Betting Analysis: Despite Watford’s poor luck this season, the schedule has done them no favours here. While City will be very motivated to take this one out, the $1.08 on offer isn’t really great value. I like a 3-1 City win at $10, with City to win by exactly 2 as a decent alternative. On the totals side, I can see both sides scoring here and also like the look of over 2.5 goals.

 

Head to Head: Man City | $1.13 – Ladbrokes
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City | $1.40 – Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals | $1.25 – Ladbrokes
Both Teams Score: Yes | $1.83 – Beteasy

Everton vs Sheffield United

Venue: Goodison Park | Start: 00:00 (AEST)

Everton: Another mixed start to the season for Everton sees them in 5th place through 5 games. They had a rather disappointing result at Bournemouth last week, losing 3-1 and getting thoroughly outplayed. They’ve shown much more promise in home games so far, getting wins over both Watford and Wolves. This builds off of last season, where they picked up 10 wins and 34 total points in league home games.

Sheffield United: The Blades have been solid but unspectacular to start the season, sitting in 15th through 5 games. The had their second loss of the season last week, a relatively disappointing result at home to Southampton. Their highlights of the season so far were their first win at home to Crystal Palace, followed by an impressive draw at Stamford Bridge. Expected points are really a fan of their start, suggesting they should be in the top 6 based on the underlying numbers.

Betting Analysis: Although they haven’t had the best start, Goodison has been a real fortress for Everton of late. It is certainly a tough place for a newly promoted side to play and I think they’ve got too much talent for Sheffield United here. The $1.62 on offer for a win is decent value, as is the 2-0 correct score market at $7.50. I think the Everton defence has a very strong afternoon here, meaning that ‘no’ in the BTTS market and under 2.5 goals are good additional bets.

 

Head to Head: Everton
Half-time/Full-time: Everton/Everton
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Newcastle vs Brighton

Venue: St James’ Park | Start: 02:30 (AEST)

Newcastle: Newcastle have predictably struggled so far this season, sitting in the relegation zone with just 4 points. Things could be even worse if they didn’t manage a shock 1-0 win at Tottenham in match week 3. You could make the case they’ve had a relatively difficult schedule so far, with this being their easiest fixture yet. They still perform quite well at St James’ Park, picking up 25 home league points last season.

Brighton: Brighton made somewhat of a fresh start by appointing Graham Potter in the summer, although they still sit 16th so far. They shocked Watford with an impressive 3-0 road win on the opening day but have only managed 2 points since. They had a fairly winnable fixture against Burnley at home last time out, one which will definitely feel like 2 points lost.

Betting Analysis: As the odds would suggest, this is a relatively tough match to predict. Newcastle have been fairly inconsistent under Bruce, while Potter’s side have shown some attacking promise so far. I think the draw at $3.10 looks like the best value on the board, with Brighton +1 the recommended handicap. 0-0 and 1-1 are the most likely results here, meaning under 2.5 goals is a solid option when it comes to totals.

 

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Newcastle/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

West Ham vs Manchester United

Venue: London Stadium | Start: 23:00 (AEST)

West Ham: The Hammers have looked like a decent outfit through 5 games, currently sitting 8th in the table. They’re undefeated since an opening day loss to Man City, managing wins over both Watford and Norwich. Expected goals suggests they’re somewhat lucky so far, as they’d likely finish mid table based on current numbers. They were a relatively strong home side last season, picking up 31 points and 9th spot in the form table.

Manchester United: Despite a ton of negative press, United still find themselves in 4th spot after 5 games so far. They had their most impressive result since opening day last time out, a home win over a strong Leicester side. The Europa League match on Friday isn’t ideal for their league preparations, although I expect a ton of rotation there. United were decent on the road last season, actually getting in the top 4 of the form table with 30 road points.

Betting Analysis: Both sides have gotten off to a solid start to the season and I expect West Ham to be fairly competitive here. Especially with a mid-week fixture for United, I expect a tense draw here, currently paying $3.50. 1-1 at $7.50 is probably the most likely scoreline, with West Ham +1 a strong handicap play. I can see both sides scoring here, but like the hedge with under 2.5 goals.

 

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Crystal Palace vs Wolves

Venue: Selhurst Park | Start: 23:00 (AEST)

Crystal Palace: Palace have had a solid but unspectacular start to the season, sitting in 12th place through 5 games. They managed an impressive win against United in match week 3 but have been inconsistent throughout the season. Their road loss to Sheffield United in week 2 was rather poor as was their 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Spurs last time out. They weren’t great at Selhurst Park last season, actually showing relegation form with just 20 total home points.

Wolves: The season so far has been an absolute disaster for Wolves, who sit 2nd last without a win. They had a dreadful result at home to Chelsea last time out, conceding 5 goals in a home drubbing. Expected points thinks they’re a better outfit than their results suggest, currently placing them ahead of 8 teams so far. They’ve been really hampered by the Europa League this season and have another game against Braga this Friday.

Betting Analysis: Combine the poor home form of Palace and the fatigue of Wolves and I think we’re set for a draw in this one. Both of these sides are relatively evenly matched and neither will be all that pleased with the result. The draw at $3 looks like solid early value, with 0-0 and 1-1 the most likely results. Even with Wolves giving up 5 last week, I expect a relatively cagey match here and like under 2.5 goals.

 

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Monday

Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Venue: Emirates Stadium | Start: 01:30 (AEST)

Arsenal: Another inconsistent start to the season has Arsenal in 7th place with 8 points so far. They had another relatively poor result on the weekend, blowing a 2-0 lead to 20th place Watford to draw. Aubameyang continues to cause the opposition nightmares, going for 3 goals in his last 2 games. Arsenal have been a significantly better home side in recent years, earning 3rd spot in the form table with 45 home points last season.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa are hanging just above the relegation zone, in 17th spot with 4 points so far. They had a relatively controversial home draw with West Ham last time out, a game that easily could’ve gone either way. Expected points thinks they’re slightly better than their record so far, actually placing them 1 spot ahead of Arsenal. Villa were relatively poor on the road in the Championship last season and haven’t managed a point in their 2 road tilts so far.

Betting Analysis: Despite a Europa League clash on Friday, I think this one is set up nicely for a home Arsenal win. They are comfortably the better of these two sides and should cause a lot of problems for Villa’s defence. I like Arsenal -1 at near even money, with my projected 3-1 scoreline coming in at $10. They’re still vulnerable on the defensive end, making BTTS and over 2.5 goals look particularly lucrative.

 

Head to Head: Arsenal
Half-time/Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Venue: Stamford Bridge | Start: 01:30 (AEST)

Chelsea: Chelsea have gotten off to a decent start under Frank Lampard, registering 8 points and sitting in 6th place so far. The attack has been really solid, with 5 goals last week propelling them to 11 goals, equal third in the league. Unfortunately, the defence has been just as bad, conceding just as many and looking particularly vulnerable. They were a strong home side under Sarri last season, managing 4th spot in the form table with 42 total points.

Liverpool: Liverpool have gotten off to an outstanding start so far, winning all 5 games and sitting 5 points clear. They’ve been dominant on both ends, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 4. A midweek trip to Napoli will definitely fatigue them, but Chelsea have a Champions League tie of their own. Their road form was dynamite last season, losing just once and picking up 44 total points.

Betting Analysis: Chelsea were impressive against Wolves last week but facing Liverpool is just a different beast. That front three is absolutely lethal and could be in for a field day against a vulnerable Chelsea defence. I like Liverpool outright at $1.91, with Liverpool by exactly 1 at $3.40 looking especially good value. 2-1 at $8.50 is my projected scoreline here, meaning that BTTS and over 2.5 goals both also have strong value.

 

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes