English Premier League Betting Preview

The Premier League heads into match week 7 with another exciting slate of 10 fixtures. Liverpool get things started in the early Saturday kick-off, as they travel to upstarts Sheffield United. Everton play host to Man City in the Saturday evening match, while round 7 culminates at Old Trafford with Arsenal coming to town. We’ll break down every game on the slate this weekend, providing our best bets in the process.

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Saturday, September 28th

Sheffield United vs Liverpool

Venue: Bramall Lane | Start: 9:30 pm (AEST)

Sheffield United: Blades fans can’t complain about their start to the campaign, sitting in the top half through 6 games. They managed a very impressive win last time out, a 2-0 victory away at Everton. Lys Mousset scored his first goal for the club last weekend, bagging the 2nd and deciding goal. Bramall Lane was a fortress in the Championship last season and the lifeblood behind their promotion form.

Liverpool: Liverpool made it 6 from 6 last weekend with a relatively convincing 2-1 win over Chelsea. Their front three continues to cause a wealth of problems for the opposition, with Roberto Firmino getting the decisive strike last time out. They’ve won all 3 games on their travels this year and were very solid away from home throughout 2018-19. Although they’re 5 points clear at the top, expected points suggests they should be 3rd so far with just under 12 points.

Betting Analysis: Liverpool are comfortably the better side all across the park and it’s tough to see them not walking away with all 3 points here. I like the Halftime/Fulltime double and their chances of winning to nil, with 2-0 my final score projection. The Blades will likely struggle to penetrate their defence, which could also bode well for under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Sunday, September 29th

Bournemouth vs West Ham

Venue: Vitality Stadium | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Bournemouth: The Cherries have had a very solid start to the season, sitting in 6th place with 10 points so far. They had a particularly impressive outing last time out, earning a 3-1 road win at Southampton. The Wilson’s continue to get on the scoresheet, both Harry and Callum netting crucial goals. They’ve picked up 4 points from 3 games at home this season, even with a rather difficult schedule so far.

West Ham: The Hammers have been another surprise package this season, sitting in 5th with 11 points. They had a rather high-profile win last time out, defeating Man United 2-0 at home. Expected points suggests their current position is fools gold and that they should be 5th last based on their play so far. They’ve looked solid on the road so far, picking up 5 points through their 3 games.

Betting Analysis: This has all the makings of a fairly competitive fixture, although I like Bournemouth to take the win here. I still think they’re somewhat undervalued and they’ve been a very strong home side in recent seasons. 2-1 looks like a fairly likely scoreline, meaning Bournemouth by exactly 1 is a decent additional bet. In terms of the total markets, I also like the look of BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Bournemouth
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Bournemouth
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Aston Villa vs Burnley

Venue: Villa Park | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Aston Villa: Aston Villa have struggled mightily so far, sitting in 18th place with 4 points through the first 6. They had a 2-1 lead against a 10-man Arsenal side last week, ultimately faltering to lose 3-2. New signing Wesley is starting to impress up front, and he netted the second goal after an impressive McGinn opener. All of their points have come at home this season, so they’ll be happy to play at Villa Park here.

Burnley: Burnley are having another solid mid-table season, sitting in 9th spot with 8 points so far. They had a fairly comfortable home win last weekend, easily seeing off Norwich 2-0. Chris Wood finally got back among the goals, netting twice in the first 15 minutes. They’ve managed 2 points on the road so far and should be expecting at least a point in this one.

Prediction: This has all the makings of a relatively tight and scrappy affair, making the $3.30 on offer for a draw look like great value. 1-1 would be my projected scoreline here, with Aston Villa likely putting up a better home performance. I can see both sides getting on the scoresheet, with under 2.5 goals providing a nice hedge.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Burnley/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Chelsea vs Brighton

Venue: Stamford Bridge | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Chelsea: It continues to be a mixed start under Frank Lampard, with Chelsea sitting in 11th place on 8 points so far. The middle of the table is incredibly clustered, with the Blues only 3 points away from 3rd spot. They fought hard against Liverpool last time out, but ultimately didn’t have enough in a 2-1 defeat. Their home form hasn’t been particularly good this season, picking up just 2 points from their 3 games.

Brighton: Brighton haven’t had the best start to the campaign, sitting in 15th place with 6 points so far. They’ve been particularly poor since an opening day win at Watford, picking up just 3 points from 5 games. They played out a bore draw against Newcastle last time out, unable to get things going offensively. Their road form has looked somewhat improved this season, picking up 4 points on their travels so far.

Betting Analysis: While Chelsea are comfortable favourites for this one, I see it being a relatively competitive game. I think Chelsea by exactly 1 goal is the best value on the board, with 2-1 as my projected scoreline. Chelsea have been very vulnerable in defence this season, which makes me think that BTTS and over 2.5 goals are solid supplementary bets.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Crystal Palace vs Norwich

Venue: Selhurst Park | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Crystal Palace: Palace have had a reasonable start to the campaign, picking up 8 points and sitting in 12th place. They had an improved display at the weekend, picking up a point at home to Wolves. They were relatively unlucky not to win the match outright against a 10-man opponent, with a 95th minute equalizer costing them. They’ve been solid at home this season, going undefeated with 5 points through their first 3 games.

Norwich: The Canaries have also had some highs and lows so far, currently sitting 16th in the table. They managed an outstanding upset win over Man City a fortnight ago, only to back it up with a 2-0 defeat at Burnley. Teemu Pukki remains their main threat offensively, already bagging 6 goals this season. They’ve been the worst road side in the division this season, picking up no points and conceding 8 goals on their travels.

Betting Analysis: While Palace weren’t great at home last season, Norwich look like they could be one of the worst road sides this year. I think Palace does just enough to get a win here and really break away from the relegation zone. Their strong defence makes me think they win to nil, with 1-0 looming as a likely scoreline. Tying in with those bets, under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market are decent alternatives.

Head to Head: Crystal Palace
Half-time/Full-time: Palace/Palace
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Wolves vs Watford

Venue: Molineux | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Wolves: Wolves have had an incredibly disappointing start to the season, sitting in 19th place with no wins and 4 points. They’ve had two lucky last minute equalizers this season, including one last time out at Palace. The Europa League has really hampered their preparations this season, although they get a brief reprieve before this one. They’ve been somewhat more competitive at home so far, although a 5-2 defeat to Chelsea a fortnight ago wasn’t all that inspiring.

Watford: Watford have been nothing sort of atrocious this season, sitting bottom of the table with 2 points and a -14 goal difference. That wasn’t helped by an 8-0 thumping at the hands of the Champions last week, which could’ve easily been more. This is a side that has been comfortably mid-table in recent seasons, making this sudden surge seem very surprising. They were a solid road side last season, earning 9th place in the form table with 23 total points.

Betting Analysis: This is an absolute must-win contest for both sides, meaning we should see 100% effort from both. While Watford will desperately want to rebound after last week, Wolves have a clear talent advantage here. I expect Wolves to win this by exactly 1 goal, with 2-1 and 1-0 the two most likely scorelines.

Head to Head: Wolves
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Wolves
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tottenham vs Southampton

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadiu | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Tottenham: Spurs have had a somewhat disappointing start to the season, sitting in 7th place with 8 points. They looked good early at Leicester last week, but were ultimately outplayed in a 2-1 defeat. Harry Kane appears to have found form, scoring a breathtaking opener last time out. Spurs have fared well at home this season, picking up 6 points in their 3 games so far.

Southampton: The Saints have been average so far, finding themselves 13th with 7 points. They missed a big opportunity last time out, falling 3-1 at home to Bournemouth in primetime. They’ve got a huge rivalry match in the cup midweek against Portsmouth, which could impact preparations for this one. Their road form has been solid so far, picking up wins over Brighton and Sheffield United.

Betting Analysis: Especially coming off a loss last week, it’s tough to see anything other than a Spurs win here. They haven’t been at their best this season but have still been a historically strong home side under Pochettino. I think they win this one by exactly 2 goals, with 3-1 the most likely scoreline. Their excellent attacking options make me think it’s likely we see over 2.5 goals in this one.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Everton vs Man City

Venue: Goodison Park | Start: 02:30 am (AEST)

Everton: A somewhat poor run sees Everton now in 14th place with 7 points so far. They’ve had two very poor results in a row, multiple goal losses to both Bournemouth and Sheffield United. Most of their problems are coming on the defensive end, conceding 7 goals in their last 3 games. They’re generally a much better home side and have won 2 of 3 at home so far this season.

Man City: City have had a decent start to the campaign, sitting in 2nd place with 13 points. They’ve been the most prolific scorers in the division, scoring 24 goals and enjoying a +18 goal difference. They rectified their loss at Norwich a fortnight ago with a brilliant display last week, demoralising Watford 8-0. Their road form has been historically good under Guardiola, particularly over the past two seasons.

Betting Analysis: Goodison is a tough place to play but City are definitely equipped to go their and win. They’ve done so by 2 goals in each of their last 2 visits and I can see something of a repeat in this one. 3-1 is my projected scoreline here, meaning that City -1 is a solid play at the handicap. From the totals side, I like the look of over 2.5 goals and BTTS in what should be a thrilling primetime clash.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, September 30th

Leicester vs Newcastle

Venue: King Power Stadium | Start: 01:30 am (AEST)

Leicester: Leicester have had a very fast start to the new season, currently in 3rd place with 11 points. They had another impressive result last week, coming from behind to beat Spurs 2-1 at home. They backed this up with an excellent showing in the cup midweek, battering Luton 4-0 on the road. They’ve picked up 7 points from 3 home games so far, which bodes well heading into this very winnable fixture.

Newcastle: Newcastle are somehow outside the relegation zone, with 5 points being good enough for 17th place. They had a scrappy draw last week against Brighton, meaning they’ve picked up points in 3 of their last 4 league games. The attack is still their main weak point, yet to score more than 1 goal in a single game. Their road form hasn’t been great this season, although they did manage a win at Tottenham in match week 3.

Betting Analysis: Newcastle have looked like one of the worst sides in the Premier League this season and will likely struggle in this one. The Leicester defence has looked good even after the sale of Harry Maguire, and I expect a clean sheet here. 2-0 is my projected scoreline here, meaning that under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market are decent additions.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Tuesday, October 1st

Man United vs Arsenal

Venue: Old Trafford | Start: 05:00

Man United: United have struggled out of the gates, falling to 8th with just 8 points this season. They were poor away at West Ham last week, thoroughly outclassed in a 2-0 defeat. Marcus Rashford had started the season strongly, but now adds to a lengthy list of long-term injuries for the club. One bright side is that XG thinks they’ve been a good side so far, suggesting they should be 2nd behind Man City based on their performances.

Arsenal: The Gunners have been somewhat better than their opponents so far, currently occupying a top 4 spot with 11 points. They managed a come-from-behind victory over Villa last weekend, made more impressive by playing with 10 men for the majority. This was backed up by an outstanding cup result mid-week, where they destroyed Nottingham Forest 5-0. They’ve struggled on the road in recent seasons, although their points return this season has been decent.

Betting Analysis: United are dealing with a rash of injuries here and could struggle against an improved Arsenal side. I like the Gunners +1 goal in this game and think that a draw is the most likely result. 1-1 would be my projected scoreline in this one, with under 2.5 goals as a decent supplementary bet.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Man United/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes