English Premier League Betting Preview

Another fascinating week of Premier League action awaits us, with all 20 teams to play over the long weekend. Liverpool vs Leicester looks like the pick of the round, pitting 1st against 3rd early on Sunday morning. Man City vs Wolves and Arsenal hosting Bournemouth are both also intriguing matchups that occur on Monday morning our time. We’ll break down every game on the slate this weekend, providing our best bets in the process.


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Saturday, October 5


Brighton vs Tottenham

Venue: Amex | Start: 21:30

Brighton: Brighton have definitely faded somewhat of late, sitting in 16th place with 6 points after 7 games. They were thoroughly outclassed against Chelsea last time out, losing 2-0 and registering just 1 shot on target. They have just 5 goals all season and are yet to win since opening day. Their home form hasn’t been great, picking up just 2 points in 3 attempts this season.

Tottenham: An inconsistent start to the season sees Tottenham just outside the top 4 on 11 points. They avoided a potential disaster last time out, beating Southampton 2-1 despite having only 10 men. They’ve got a high-profile Champions League clash with Bayern midweek, which could impact their preparations here. Spurs were an elite road side last season, earning 3rd place in the form table with 11 away wins.

Betting Analysis: Brighton have been surprisingly poor since match day 1 and look set to really struggle this season. Spurs have the comfortably more talented side and I believe the $1.85 on offer is great value. 2-1 Tottenham at $8.50 looks like a fairly likely scoreline, meaning Spurs by exactly 1 goal is also a solid bet. Tying in with these bets, over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both strong from a total perspective.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Sunday, October 6


Liverpool vs Leicester

Venue: Anfield | Start: 00:00

Liverpool: Liverpool are a perfect 7 from 7 in the Premier League this season, sporting a +13-goal difference. It was relatively nervy against Sheffield United last week, although a 70th minute winner from Wijnaldum got the job done. They’ve got a Champions League tie midweek against Red Bull Salzburg, not allowing for much recovery time here. Anfield has been very much a fortress in recent seasons, with Liverpool picking up 53 points there last season.

Leicester: Leicester have been the surprise packets this season, picking up 14 points to sit in 3rd place. They were outstanding against Newcastle last week, with a Jamie Vardy double being the catalyst for a 5-0 win. Brendan Rodgers makes his return to Anfield this week and is sure to have his side firing. Their road form has been solid but unspectacular so far, picking up 4 points from 3 outings.

Betting Analysis: Despite having a midweek game, it’s tough to look past Liverpool here. They’re in incredible form and are near unbeatable at home. The $1.40 on offer is about right, although I think there is some value in Liverpool by 1 goal at $3.50. 2-1 is again a likely scoreline here, meaning that BTTS and over 2,5 goals are both solid additional options.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Watford vs Sheffield United

Venue: Vicarage Road | Start: 00:00

Watford: Watford are off to a disastrous start, picking up only 2 points through 7 games and sitting dead last. They had another poor result last week, a 2-0 defeat at the previously winless Wolves. Their defence has been the main problem this season, conceding 20 goals and leading to a -16 goal difference. They were a decent road side last season, finishing 9th in the form table with 23 away points.

Sheffield United: The Blades are off to a solid but unspectacular start to the season, currently in 12th place with 8 points. They fought valiantly against Liverpool last week, ultimately losing 1-0 at home. Getting results at places like Stamford Bridge and Goodison Park show that this team can grind it out on the road. Expected goals backs up their results so far, suggesting they should be comfortably mid-table.

Betting Analysis: This is Watford’s most winnable game of the season, although it’s hard to back them in this form. I’ve liked United’s ability to battle on the road this season and think they can sneak a draw at $3.30. 0-0 or 1-1 are definitely the most likely outcomes here, meaning Sheffield United at the handicap and under 2.5 are solid options.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Sheffield United/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Burnley vs Everton

Venue: Turf Moor | Start: 00:00

Burnley: Burnley are yet again comfortably mid-table, sitting in 10th place with 9 points so far. They managed a well-earned point at Villa last week, coming from behind twice to draw 2-2. Striker Chris Wood has been in particularly good form, netting 3 times in his last 2 league matches. They’ve been good at home this season, picking up 2 comfortable wins in 3 attempts.

Everton: It hasn’t been a great start to the season for Everton, who currently sit in 15th with just 7 points. They comfortably lost 3-1 to City last weekend, marking their third successive defeat. Their defence appears particularly shaky, conceding 8 goals across that string of defeats. Their road form has been woeful this season, picking up just 1 point in 3 matches so far.

Betting Analysis: Everton will understandably be motivated here, but Turf Moor is a damn tough place to play. I think Burnley’s style can cause some defensive problems for Everton in what should be a tight affair. With a relatively even matchup, I think a draw is the most likely result, with 1-1 being my projected scoreline. I can see both sides getting on the scoresheet, with under 2.5 as a worthwhile middle and hedging opportunity.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Norwich vs Aston Villa

Venue: Carrow Road | Start: 00:00

Norwich: A mixed start to the campaign sees the Canaries in 17th position with 6 points to their name. They had an amazing win over Man City 3 weeks ago, only to fall to Burnley and Crystal Palace in their last 2. They’ve been held scoreless in 4 of their last 5 games, largely due to the declining form of Teemu Pukki. All of their points have come at home this season, which should bode well against a fellow newly promoted side.

Aston Villa: Aston Villa are just behind Norwich with 5 points through their first 7 games. They’ve had chances in each of the last few games, ultimately blowing leads against Arsenal and Burnley. The defence appears to be particularly vulnerable, conceding 5 goals in the last 2. They’re yet to pick up a road point this season, although an injury-plagued Norwich side represents a decent opportunity to get their first.

Betting Analysis: This is another clash that’s very tough to call, as the odds would suggest. Despite Norwich’s strong home record, their lengthy injury list has me still hesitant for this one. I think Villa is better than their record and can steal a point here, with $3.50 currently on offer for the draw. Neither side has a strong defensive record so I can also see some value in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Villa/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes


West Ham vs Crystal Palace

Venue: London Stadium | Start: 03:30

West Ham: The Hammers have been impressive so far, currently occupying a top 4 spot with 12 points. They picked up a solid point at Bournemouth last week, coming from behind to draw 2-2. Keeper Lukasz Fabianski has been ruled out for this one, which could be a huge blow. They’ve been great at home this season, enjoying consecutive 2-goal victories over Norwich and Man United.

Crystal Palace: Palace are again sitting comfortably in mid table, enjoying 11 points from their first 7. They had one of their better performances last time out, a fairly strong 2-0 home win over Norwich. Expected points thinks they’re slightly worse than their record and should be sitting 13th based on performances so far. They haven’t been great on the road, suffering a 4-0 drubbing to Spurs in their last outing.

Betting Analysis: West Ham have had a tremendous start to the season and I can see that continuing here. Although Palace were a good road side last season, they appear more vulnerable defensively in 2019-20. West Ham can currently be had for $2 to win outright and $3.75 to win by exactly 1 goal. 2-1 West Ham is a relatively likely outcome here, meaning that BTTS and over 2.5 goals are both definitely in play.

Head to Head: West Ham
Half-time/Full-time: West Ham/West Ham
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes


Monday, October 7


Man City vs Wolves

Venue: Etihad | Start: 00:00

Man City: City enter this clash second in the league with 16 points so far. They’ve got comfortably the best goal difference in the league, having scored 27 and conceded just 7 for an impressive + 20. They had a somewhat nervy win away at Everton last week, with two late goals securing a 3-1 scoreline. City have been historically good as a road side under Guardiola, picking up 94 away points over the last two seasons.

Wolves: Despite only winning once this season, Wolves are currently a respectable 13th in the table with 7 points. Their 2-0 win over Watford last week was huge, helping them climb 6 places and provide much-needed security. Despite the slow start, expected goals thinks they’re a comfortably mid-table side. They have struggled during Europa League weeks and a trip to Besiktas this week could prove problematic.

Betting Analysis: Although both sides are playing in Europe mid-week, this looks like a relatively routine win for City. They’ve got the attacking weapons to cause Wolves problems defensively, which should prove the difference here. I like City by exactly 2 goals here at $3.75, with 3-1 being my projected scoreline. Tying in with those bets, over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both solid additions.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Arsenal vs Bournemouth

Venue: Emirates | Start: 00:00

Arsenal: They haven’t been great this season, although Arsenal still sit in the top 4 with 12 points so far. They played out a tedious but predictable 1-1 draw at Old Trafford last week, overtaking West Ham in the process. Aubameyang still looms as a major threat up front, netting the equalizer last time out. Expected goals thinks this team is very much overperforming and should actually be in 12th place based on the numbers so far.

Bournemouth: A solid start to the season sees Bournemouth in 8th place with 11 points so far. They’ve had some particularly good results of late, picking up 7 points in their last 3 against Everton, Southampton, and West Ham. Callum Wilson has been absolutely lethal up front, netting 4 times in that trio of games. Their road form has been decent so far, picking up 6 points from 3 games and a + 1 goal difference.

Betting Analysis: Arsenal enter this game as substantial favourites and really should pick up all 3 points here. I’m not sure the $1.36 currently on offer is great value, although Arsenal by exactly 1 at $3.60 isn’t half bad. 2-1 seems like a fairly likely scoreline here, meaning there is also some value on BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Arsenal
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Arsenal
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Southampton vs Chelsea

Venue: St Mary’s | Start: 00:00

Southampton: The Saints currently find themselves in 14th position with 7 points from 7 games so far. They let an opportunity slip away at Tottenham last week, ultimately falling 2-1 against 10 men. Expected goals suggests they’re a much improved side this season and are actually 7th in the XG table. Their home form has been particularly atrocious so far, with only 1 point from 3 outings.

Chelsea: A mixed start to the campaign sees Chelsea in 7th spot with 11 points so far. Their form appears to be picking up, with 3 wins in their last 5 league games. They were professional and controlled against Brighton last week, earning a comfortable 2-0 home win. They have a Champions League trip to Lille this week, which may complicate things here.

Betting Analysis: While Chelsea are the better of these two sides, they just haven’t been consistent this season. Southampton have looked better this season, particularly due to the impressive coaching of Hasenhuttl. I think the Draw at $3.75 is definitely in play here, but I’ll take Southampton +1 in case they manage an outright win. I see this being a relatively cagey and low-scoring affair, meaning under 2.5 goals is solid on the totals side.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Southampton/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes


Newcastle vs Man United

Venue: St James’ Park | Start: 02:30

Newcastle: It has been a predictably poor start to the campaign for relegation favourites Newcastle, who currently sit in 19th. They have only 5 points all season, the bulk of which came in a lucky upset at Spurs. They were absolutely dreadful away at Newcastle last week, conceding 4 second-half goals to lose 5-0. Their home form was consistently solid under Benitez the last few seasons, although St James’ Park isn’t the same fortress under Steve Bruce.

Man Utd: Things don’t appear to be getting much better for Man United, who are currently in 10th place with 9 points so far. They let another lead slip last week, ultimately drawing 1-1 at home to Arsenal. Their road league form has been awful this season, with just 2 away points putting them 16th in the form table. A midweek trip to the Netherlands for the Europa League is just another thing going against them here.

Betting Analysis: As bad as Man United have been this season, you have to think they can get the job done here. Expected goals still thinks they’ve been a top side this season, so I can’t count them out yet. While it might be a trap bet, the $1.83 to win outright and $3.60 to win by exactly 1 goal are too good to pass up. Offense will likely be at a premium in this one, so under 2.5 goals is also a decent hedge.

Head to Head: Man United
Half-time/Full-time: Man United/Man United
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No