Premier League Betting Preview

After another arduous international break, the Premier League is back with a full 10-game slate. Everton and West Ham get us underway with the early Saturday kick-off, while Sheffield United and Arsenal close things out. The match of the round takes place early on Monday morning, with Man United playing host to league-leading Liverpool. We’ll preview all 10 games this weekend and analyse the best options available from a betting perspective.


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Saturday, October 19


Everton vs West Ham

Venue: Goodison Park | Start: 22:30 pm

Everton: The Toffees have been in dire straits of late, currently sitting in 18th place with just 7 points. They’ve lost each of their last 4 league games, putting Marco Silva’s job in real danger. To make matters worse, Seamus Coleman is suspended for this one after picking up a red card last time out. They’ve definitely been a better home side this season, picking up 6 of their 7 points at Goodison.

West Ham: A decent start has the Hammers in 8th spot with 12 points so far. They had a relatively poor result last time out, falling 2-1 at home to Crystal Palace. Their attack has been noticeably improved this season, scoring in all but 1 game so far. They’re actually undefeated on the road this season, securing 6 points and a top 4 spot in the form table.

Analysis: After a disastrous run of form, I think the international break came at a very good time for Everton. They’re typically a much better home side and I think they can get back to winning ways here. Expect their front four to fire here en route to a 2-1 victory. Neither side has been great defensively this season, meaning that BTTS and over 2.5 goals are decent additional bets.

Head to Head: Everton
Half-time/Full-time: Everton/Everton
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes


Sunday, October 20


Bournemouth vs Norwich

Venue: Vitality Stadium | Start: 01:00

Bournemouth: The Cherries currently find themselves 10th in the table after 11 well-earned points. They were competitive away at Arsenal last time out, ultimately falling to a 1-0 defeat. The strength of this side is definitely their attack, with both Wilson and King combining for a lethal strike force. Their home form has generally been stellar of late, picking up 5 points from 4 attempts this season.

Norwich: Despite some positive flashes, Norwich are in just 19th spot with 6 points so far. Their poor run got even worse last time out as they were destroyed 5-1 away at Aston Villa. Injuries have been a major burden for this team all season and it looks like they still have several key players out. They are yet to pick up a point on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for this one.

Analysis: Bournemouth are a Premier League mainstay, while Norwich are as bad of a road side as we’ve seen in recent years. I think the Cherries get another home win here and really like the look of the $1.80 currently on offer. Given Norwich’s defensive struggles, I also like Bournemouth -1 goal, with 2-0 looking like a fairly likely final scoreline.

Head to Head: Bournemouth
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Bournemouth
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No


Aston Villa vs Brighton

Venue: Villa Park | Start: 01:00

Aston Villa: Despite an inconsistent start, Villa sit comfortably in 15th with 8 points so far. They had a confidence boosting win last time out, destroying Norwich 5-1. New striker Wesley appears to be finding form, netting twice in that aforementioned victory. They’ve picked up 5 points from 4 home games so far, placing them comfortably middle of the pack.

Brighton: Brighton have been solid but unspectacular so far, sitting in 14th with 9 total points. Their result against Tottenham was huge last time out, securing a 3-0 home win and sending Spurs on a downward spiral. New coach Graham Potter has been rather impressive, encouraging his team to display a more attacking style of football. They’ve been an average road side this season, managing 4 points from 4 attempts.

Analysis: While not a matchup between heavyweights, this game features two sides that should comfortably avoid relegation this season. Villa typically have a very strong home field, although I think Brighton is the slightly better side. In what should be a relatively cagey affair, I like the well-priced draw here, with 1-1 sticking out as a likely scoreline. This ties in nicely with our totals hedge, where we back under 2.5 goals and also BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes


Leicester City vs Burnley

Venue: King Power Stadium | Start: 01:00

Leicester: The Foxes have been a pleasant surprise this season, sitting in the top 4 with 14 points so far. They fought valiantly away at Liverpool last time out, ultimately falling to a 2-1 defeat. Given the form of some of the traditional big 6, they’ve got a great chance to make some noise this season. The King Power has been a fortress this season and they’ve picked up 10 of a possible 12 points so far.

Burnley: Although they haven’t been creating any headlines, Burnley find themselves in 7th spot with an impressive 12-point haul. They enter this clash off 7 points in their last 3, including a home win over Everton last time out. Their defence has been typically resilient, making it very tough for opposing attackers to create chances. They admittedly just aren’t the same team on the road, collecting just 3 away points in 4 attempts this season.

Analysis: Although Burnley look in no danger of going down, Leicester are just on a different level this season. The King Power is a very tough place to visit and I expect another Leicester home win here. Burnley just don’t have the attacking options to trouble Leicester, ultimately leading to a 2-0 defeat. As additional bets, I like both Leicester -1 and ‘no’ in the BTTS market here.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No


Wolves vs Southampton

Venue: Molineux | Start: 01:00

Wolves: Despite an atrocious start to the season, Wolves now find themselves comfortably mid-table with 10 points. They had an outstanding win last time out, a shock 2-0 result at the Etihad. Pace merchant Adama Traore was among the goals, netting twice from counter attacks. They’ve been a mixed bag at home so far, ultimately claiming 5 points from 4 outings.

Southampton: The Saints haven’t been great so far, sitting just outside the relegation zone with 7 total points. They were on the end of a beatdown last time out, falling 4-1 to Chelsea. Manager Raphael Hassenhuttl comes from a strong pedigree and looks like the man who could reverse their fortunes. They’ve been a weirdly strong road side so far, picking up 6 of their 7 points away from home.

Analysis: Although Wolves have struggled this season, a lot of that is due to fixture congestion from the Europa League. I think they’re comfortably the more talented of these two sides and look set for a relatively comfortable home win. Given their defensive struggles, I think Southampton pegs one back in what ends up a 2-1 final score. Add in BTTS and over 2.5 goals for a trifecta of value in this one.

Head to Head: Wolves
Half-time/Full-time: Wolves/Wolves
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes


Chelsea vs Newcastle

Venue: Stamford Bridge | Start: 01:00

Chelsea: Frank Lampard has had a decent start as Chelsea manager, sitting in 5th place with 14 points so far. They’ve been on a solid run of late, capped off with a 4-1 win over Southampton last time out. Their academy players have been revelations so far, with Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham particularly standing out. They’re a middle of the pack home side, picking up 5 points in 4 attempts.

Newcastle: After an off-season of turmoil, Newcastle find themselves outside the relegation zone in 16th. They had a morale-boosting win last time out, a 1-0 victory over relegation rivals Man United. Their defence has remained resilient under Steve Bruce, picking up some scrappy clean sheets when required. They have just 3 away points this season, all coming from a relatively fluky win at Spurs.

Analysis: Although Newcastle are developing a penchant for beating big teams, I don’t see it happening at Chelsea this weekend. Chelsea’s attacking talent should ultimately prove too much, resulting in a relatively comfortable 3-1 win. Unless Newcastle can really frustrate them defensively, Chelsea’s trend towards over 2.5 goals should definitely continue here.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes


Tottenham vs Watford

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Start: 01:00

Tottenham: A poor recent run has Spurs looking in real trouble, sitting in 9th place so far. They had a disastrous lead-up to the international break, falling 7-2 to Bayern and then 3-0 to Brighton in the league. Talks are that Pochettino could lose his job, unless results improve in a hurry. They’ve still been a solid home side, picking up 9 points from 4 contests so far.

Watford: An awful start to the season has Watford rooted to the bottom with just 3 points so far. They missed an opportunity in a winnable home game with Sheffield United, ultimately settling for a 0-0 draw. While their attacking options look good on paper, they’ve managed just 4 league goals so far. They’ve picked up just 1 road point this season, to go with a -11-road goal difference.

Analysis: Despite an awful run of fixtures before the break, I don’t want to downgrade Spurs too much for this one. They’re still an elite home side taking on the league cellar dwellers. While I don’t see it being a Man City style thumping, Spurs should win this by a relatively comfortable 2 or 3 goals. With neither side showing too much at the back, I also like BTTS and over 2.5 goals in this one.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No


Crystal Palace vs Man City

Venue: Selhurst Park | Start: 03:30

Crystal Palace: A decent run of form has Palace sitting 6th in the table on 14 total points. They had a set of solid results before the break, defeating Norwich at home and West Ham on the road. They’ve had some decent results against City of late, notably a win at the Etihad last season. Their home form has been much improved this season, resulting in 8 points from 4 attempts.

Man City: Despite an up and down season so far, City still find themselves comfortably in 2nd place. They had a rare home loss last time out, falling 2-0 at home to Wolves. The expected return of Kevin De Bruyne should give them a huge boost heading into this one. They’re still an extremely professional road outfit, picking up 9 points from 4 games so far.

Analysis: City perform very well off a loss under Guardiola and I see no reason why that won’t be the case here. They match up rather well with this Palace side, particularly in midfield and up front. I see a hard-fought but ultimately comfortable 3-1 win here, with City -1 looking a good bet. City’s defence has been rather leaky of late, meaning over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both also in play.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes


Monday, October 21


Man United vs Liverpool

Venue: Old Trafford | Start: 02:30

Man United: United are mired in a poor run of form, sitting in 12th place with just 9 points so far. They were atrocious away at Newcastle last time out, falling 1-0 in a dire away defeat. Although they’ve dealt with a few key injuries, this team isn’t creating nearly enough chances up front. They’re still a much better side at Old Trafford, picking up 7 points from 4 home games so far.

Liverpool: The Reds have been essentially flawless this season, winning each of their 8 games so far. They were tested at home to Leicester last time out, ultimately prevailing 2-1 after a controversial penalty. Their defence continues to perform at an elite level, conceding just 6 goals so far. Although they’ve won every road game this season, they’re still an objectively better home team.

Analysis: Despite their horrendous form of late, Old Trafford is still a difficult place for opposing sides to visit. That said, Liverpool are a different beast this season and look a great bet to continue their winning run at $1.72. It should be a relatively tense and competitive affair, although their talent should be too much in a 2-1 win. I like Liverpool by exactly 1 goal in this one, with nothing really sticking out on the totals side.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes


Tuesday, October 22


Sheffield United vs Arsenal

Venue: Bramall Lane | Start: 06:00

Sheffield United: Some gritty performances so far have Sheffield United comfortably mid-table with 9 points. It wasn’t pretty, although they managed a well-earned point at Watford last time out. Their defence has been excellent so far, only behind Liverpool with 7 total goals conceded. They’ve been oddly worse at home so far, a win against Crystal Palace their only points to date.

Arsenal: The Gunners have looked largely solid this season, sitting in 3rd place with 15 points so far. They’ve pulled out the close games of late, beating Bournemouth 1-0 at home last time out. Their attack is still one of the best in the league, with Aubameyang, Lacazette, and Pepe forming an elite trio. They’re still a better home than road side, although 5 points from 4 attempts isn’t all that bad.

Analysis: A primetime road game against a gritty opponent is usually one that Arsenal would’ve lost in recent seasons. They look like a solid and more compact side this season that can capably win away from home. I think their attack creates just enough chances here, ultimately sneaking another 1-0 win. Given Sheffield United’s trend towards the under, I also like the look of under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Arsenal
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Arsenal
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No