Another week, another full slate of exciting Premier League fixtures. Although none of the big six play each other, Arsenal vs Wolves and Everton vs Tottenham look like very solid matchups. Man United will get us underway at Bournemouth on Saturday night, while Man City and Liverpool both feature in the early Sunday slate. We’ll analyse all 10 games on the card this week, identifying where the value lies in each.

Saturday, November 2nd

Bournemouth vs Man United

Venue: Vitality Stadium | Start: 23:30

Bournemouth: Bournemouth have had a solid start to the campaign, currently sitting in 9th with 13 points through 10 games. They were held scoreless for the third time in a row last time out, drawing 0-0 with Watford. After a promising start to the campaign, striker duo Callum Wilson and Josh King have been kept quiet of late. The Cherries haven’t been great at home this season, managing just 1 win and 6 points from 5 games.

Man United: United also have 13 points through their 10 games, with a superior goal difference sitting them in 7th. They were fairly impressive last time out, managing a 3-1 road win at Norwich. A big League Cup match awaits them midweek against Chelsea and it’ll be interesting to see if that affects their preparations here. They’ve picked up just 5 points from 5 road games this season, good for 11th in the form table.

Betting Analysis: Although Bournemouth are a solid side, their recent lack of goals is definitely cause for concern. United are the better of these two sides, although their road performances have been nothing to write home about. Ultimately, I expect a hard-fought competitive match here, with the draw at $3.40 definitely sticking out. 1-1 is my projected scoreline, with under 2.5 goals a decent supplementary bet.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Man United/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sunday, November 3

Arsenal vs Wolves

Venue: Emirates Stadium | Start: 02:00

Arsenal: An inconsistent start to the campaign has the Gunners in 5th place with 16 points so far. They had an entertaining fixture with Palace last time out, ultimately being held to a controversial 2-2 draw. Expected points doesn’t rate this side at all, suggesting they should actually be 11th based on performances. They’re still an elite home side overall, picking up 11 points from 5 games thus far.

Wolves: Some recent solid performances have brought Wolves up from the cellar to a more respectable 12th place. They missed an opportunity last time out, drawing 1-1 with a 10-man Newcastle outfit. They’ve had the most draws in the league so far, with 6 already through their first 10 games. Their road form has been identical to their home form, picking up 6 points through 5 games.

Betting Analysis: After a relatively poor home display last week, this Arsenal side really needs to rebound if they hope to make top 4. Both sides have relatively high-profile League Cup matches midweek, which could add to fatigue for this clash. I think this favours Arsenal with the deeper squad and that they ultimately prevail 2-1. Arsenal to win by 1 goal looks like a solid bet, as do BTTS and over 2.5 total goals.

Head to Head: Arsenal
Half-time/Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Aston Villa vs Liverpool

Venue: Villa Park | Start: 02:00

Aston Villa: Villa have been a respectable outfit this season, sitting in 15th place with 11 points thus far. They had a tough go of it last weekend, falling 3-0 away at the Etihad. They’ve had no trouble finding the net this season, scoring a solid 15 goals overall. They’re also a noticeably better side at home, registering 8 points from their 5 games at Villa Park this season.

Liverpool: Liverpool still find themselves atop the Premier League, managing an impressive 28 points from their first 10. They made their way past Spurs 2-1 last weekend, unsurprisingly due to a Mo Salah penalty. Expected points thinks they’ve definitely overachieved thus far, and should only have 20 points based on performances. They still look like a very impressive road side, dropping just 2 points this season.

Betting Analysis: Based on some of the expected points data, I continue to think Liverpool are overrated in the current market. They keep managing narrow victories, but I’m not sure they justify the $1.30 price on offer here. Villa have a strong home field advantage and can get at the Liverpool defence, looking decent value +1 goal at $3.30. I like the outright draw at odds of $5, as well as under 2.5 goals in what could definitely be a tight affair.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Brighton vs Norwich

Venue: Amex Stadium | Start: 02:00

Brighton: Despite some inconsistencies this season, Brighton find themselves in 14th with 12 points so far. They managed a 94th minute winner last time out, getting past Everton 3-2 in a crucial game. Expected points is a real fan of this side and thinks they should be 8th based on performances thus far. Their home form is definitely very respectable, picking up 8 points from their first 5.

Norwich: Norwich look to be in a spot of bother, sitting in 19th place on just 7 points. They had a deflating home loss last weekend, falling 3-1 to Man United in front of the cameras. Their defence has looked vulnerable all season, with only the free-falling Southampton conceding more than their 24 goals. They’ve been a disaster on the road this season, sitting last in the form table with just 1 away point.

Betting Analysis: Brighton are quietly a solid side that appear somewhat underrated by the current market. Norwich have been an unmitigated disaster on the road and I can see some more struggles from them here. Look for the improved Brighton attacking options to get on the scoresheet here, having a field day in a 3-1 win. I like Brighton -1 on the handicap and see some value in over 2.5 on the totals side.

Head to Head: Brighton
Half-time/Full-time: Brighton/Brighton
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Man City vs Southampton

Venue: Etihad Stadium | Start: 02:00

Man City: City have steadied the ship of late, sitting in 2nd place with 22 points so far. Despite a tense first half last week, they ultimately made light work of Villa in a strong 3-0 win. They played this Southampton side in the League Cup midweek, managing a fairly comfortable 3-1 win. The Etihad still remains a fortress, where they’ve scored 17 goals and conceded just 4 thus far.

Southampton: Southampton are definitely now in a fight for relegation, sitting in 18th place with just 8 points. They had a disastrous result last weekend, falling at home to Leicester by a brutal 9-0 scoreline. Their defence is now the worst in the division, with 25 conceded goals making for a -16-goal difference. A bright spot is that they’ve actually been solid on the road this season, earning 2 away wins and 7 road points.

Betting Analysis: It’s tough to see anything other than a comfortable City win here, so I’ll focus on some other markets. I think they get this done relatively handily and can see strong value in City -2 goals at $1.91. 4-0 seems like a very realistic scoreline to me, meaning City to win to nil is also in play. Over 2.5 goals is good from a total perspective, although I wouldn’t look to play BTTS.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Sheffield United vs Burnley

Venue: Bramall Lane | Start: 02:00

Sheffield United: The Blades keep picking up results, sitting in 8th place with 13 points thus far. They earned another good point away at West Ham last week, picking up a respectable 1-1 draw. Expected goals is unsurprisingly not a fan of this side, with stats suggesting they should be 17th on performances so far. Their home form has been good but not great, picking up 2 wins and 6 total points from 5 games.

Burnley: Some middling displays have Burnley in 13th place with 12 points from their first 10. They were defensively poor against Chelsea last time out, falling by a 4-2 scoreline. Expected goals really does like this side, putting them in the top 6 on the numbers so far. They’re winless on the road this season, with 3 points from 5 games putting them 14th in the form table.

Betting Analysis: Although they’ve been a feel-good story to start the season, I think Sheffield United are definitely overrated at the moment. Burnley are still a very competitive side and have picked up a few draws on their travels this season. This smells like a prototypical gritty 1-1 draw, currently on offer at $6.50 odds. I like Burnley at the +1 handicap here and also fancy under 2.5 goals on the totals side.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

West Ham vs Newcastle

Venue: London Stadium | Start: 02:00

West Ham: An indifferent start to the season sees the Hammers in 10th place with 13 points. They outplayed Sheffield United statistically last week, ultimately settling for a 1-1 draw. They’re certainly not an Expected Goals darling, sitting in the relegation zone based on that metric. They’ve managed 7 points from their last 4 home games, suggesting the London Stadium could be a tough place to play this season.

Newcastle: Largely due to the incompetence around them, Newcastle are just outside the relegation zone, sitting in 17th with 9 points so far. They fought very hard last week, getting a point at home to Wolves with just 10 men. The defence has really tightened up since the Leicester drubbing, conceding just 2 goals since. They aren’t a great side on the road, their fluke win at Spurs their only away points this season.

Betting Analysis: While I see this as a relatively close contest, I think West Ham are the slightly better side. Newcastle haven’t been great in the attacking third and I can see them getting shut out here. The Hammers are decent value at $1.83 to win, with 2-0 looking like a likely scoreline. I like West Ham to win to Nil and can also see some value in under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: West Ham
Half-time/Full-time: West Ham/West Ham
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Watford vs Chelsea

Venue: Vicarage Road | Start: 04:30

Watford: Watford still find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table, sitting on just 5 points thus far. They were better last week against Bournemouth, fighting hard to secure a 0-0 draw. Their lack of offensive production is still their main weakness, managing just 5 goals all season. They’re statistically the second worst home side in the league, managing just 3 points from 5.

Chelsea: Chelsea are starting to look much better under Lampard, earning a top 4 spot with 20 points so far. They had an underrated but strong win last week, putting 4 past Burnley at Turf Moor. While they’ve managed an impressive 23 goals so far, conceding 16 suggests there’s some work to do at the back. They’re been the third best away team in the league thus far, winning 4 games from 5.

Betting Analysis: Watford really haven’t lived up to expectations thus far, although there is still time to turn that around. They’ve got a fairly tough fixture away at Chelsea here, one I’m not sure they’ve got the firepower to win. I think the Blues do enough offensively against a vulnerable defence here, ultimately securing a 2-1 win. Over 2.5 goals is a solid option here, as is Chelsea to win by exactly 1 goal.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, November 4

Crystal Palace vs Leicester

Venue: Selhurst Park | Start: 01:00

Crystal Palace: Despite a somewhat controversial summer, Palace find themselves in the top 6 with 15 points so far. They had another impressive result at Arsenal last week, a 2-2 draw that could’ve gone either way. While they are in the top 5, their 10 goals scored and negative goal difference aren’t inspiring figures. Their home form has been solid this far, with 8 points and just 1 loss from 5.

Leicester: The Foxes have hugely impressed this season, sitting in 3rd place with 20 points. They had an outstanding win at Southampton last week, a 9-0 rout that saw both Vardy and Perez register hat-tricks. Their defence has been equally impressive, conceding a league-leading 8 goals on the campaign. They aren’t as good on the road, although they’ve still managed 7 points from 5 tilts so far.

Betting Analysis: This has the makings of a tight affair between two sides that are firmly in the mix for European football. I think both of them are somewhat overrated at the moment, which is somewhat mitigated by playing each other. The Draw at $3.30 is screaming off the page to me initially, with the standard 1-1 a realistic result. Palace +1 is a decent supplementary bet, as is BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Palace/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Everton vs Tottenham

Venue: Goodison Park | Start: 03:30

Everton: Everton have been quietly very poor this season, sitting in 16th with just 10 points. They let a result slip through their fingers at Brighton last week, conceding a decisive 94th minute goal. Expected goals does really rate this side, putting them 5th based on the action so far. Goodison is still a tough place to play and it’s where they’ve secured 9 of their 10 points this season.

Tottenham: Tottenham have also been surprisingly poor thus far, now in 11th with 12 total points. They scored very early on at Liverpool last week, but ultimately couldn’t hold them out in a 2-1 defeat. That said, a 5-0 win in the Champions League a few days earlier shows that they may have figured some things out. Their road form has been uncharacteristically poor, earning just 2 points from 5.

Betting Analysis: This is a relatively tough game to predict between two sides that have been very inconsistent so far. Spurs are the more talented of the two, although they’ve been plagued with dressing room issues all year. Nevertheless, I’m going out on a limb and expecting this talent to shine through in a 2-1 road win. I think Spurs are good value at $2.40 in this one, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals looking like solid options on the totals side.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes