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Monday, November 4, 2019

JAGUARS VS TEXANS

Venue: Wembley Stadium | Start: 1:30am AEDT

The NFL continues its international tour in Week Nine with two exciting young quarterbacks dueling in a game with all sorts of playoff implications. Deshaun Watson has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate for the Texans and Gardner Minshew is making a claim for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors for Jacksonville. Effective running games have helped propel both teams. Jacksonville (1,092 yards) and Houston (1,069) rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in the NFL in rushing yards thus far this season. However, the Jaguars have managed just a single touchdown on the ground in 2019. Houston, meanwhile, has just one 100-plus-yard rushing game from lead back Carlos Hyde. Critical injuries on both sides threaten to steal the spotlight. The Texans lost former NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt to a torn pectoral in last week’s win over the Raiders and two of Watson’s favorite targets — DeAndre Hopkins (thumb) and Will Fuller (hamstring) — as well as starting offensive tackles Laremy Tunsil (shoulder) and Tytus Howard (knee) are in danger of missing this contest. The Texans have allowed more sacks (24) thus far this season than any team with a winning record and the Jaguars have 29 sacks, third best in the league. The Jaguars have injuries of their own, including to stud defensive lineman Calais Campbell (back), as well as receivers D.J. Chark (quadriceps) and Dede Westbrook (neck) and even kicker Josh Lambo (groin).

Win: Houston Texans | $1.80 – Beteasy
Line: Houston Texans -1.5 | $1.88 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under 46.5 | $1.96 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games
  • Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Texans
  • Texans are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against Jaguars
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games against Jacksonville on the road

Key Injuries:

Houston Texans – DE J.J. Watt (Pectoral) out for the season; CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. (Concussion) and T Laremy Tunsil (Shoulder) are both listed as day-to-day.

Jacksonville Jaguars – S Ronnie Harrison (Neck), CB D.J. Hayden (Shoulder), WR Marqise Lee (Shoulder) and WR Dede Westbrook (Neck) are all listed as day-to-day.

STEELERS VS COLTS

Venue: Heinz Field | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The visiting Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers will clash on Sunday each coming off comeback victories to keep their winning streaks alive. The Colts (5-2) trailed by 10 in the third quarter at home against Denver, but won their third straight game thanks to Adam Vinatieri’s 51-yard field goal with 22 seconds remaining. The Steelers (3-4), meanwhile, fell behind 14-0 to the winless Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football before scoring 27 unanswered points. It was Pittsburgh’s second straight win and third out of four following an 0-3 start. Both teams are playing without their first choice at quarterback, after Andrew Luck abruptly retired during the preseason and Ben Roethlisberger was lost to a season-ending elbow injury in Week 2. Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 1,590 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions in seven starts. He was sacked four times on Sunday after taking just two sacks over the previous four games and a total of seven all season. Meanwhile, Mason Rudolph has thrown for 897 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions in five games (four starts). He leads the NFL in touchdown percentage (6.9). The Colts have lost five straight in the head-to-head series and their last win came in 2008.

Win: Indianapolis Colts | $1.90 – Bet365
Line: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 | $1.91 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Over 43.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Colts are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
  • Steelers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games at home
  • Steelers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Colts

Key Injuries:

Indianapolis Colts – DT Denico Autry (Stinger) and S Khari Willis (Foot) are listed as day-to-day.

Pittsburgh Steelers – G Ramon Foster (Concussion) listed as day-to-day.

EAGLES VS BEARS

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The Eagles beat the Bears in January in the playoff game that proved to be Cody Parkey’s last kick in Chicago. Much has changed since the 17-16 win, including Philadelphia adding Bears running back Jordan Howard via trade. But the Bears are still fighting the kicking concerns that derailed their 2018 season, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been inconsistent. The Bears are 3-4 with three straight losses despite pretty consistent play from their defense. Head coach Matt Nagy made his strongest commitment to the running game last week with David Montgomery, which should only help Trubisky against the Eagles’ attacking front. Howard and rookie Miles Sanders are beginning to look like a potent 1-2 punch for the Eagles, and if DeSean Jackson returns at wide receiver, Philadelphia could be near the complete group head coach Doug Pederson envisioned prior to the season.

Win: Philadelphia Eagles | $1.45 – Ladbrokes
Line: Chicago Bears +5 | $1.89 – Beteasy
Total Points: Over 42.5 | $1.92 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 12 games
  • Eagles are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia’s last 16 games at home

Key Injuries:

Chicago Bears – LB Isaiah Irving (Quadricep) is listed as day-to-day.

Philadelphia Eagles – RB Miles Sanders (Shoulder) listed as day-to-day.

PANTHERS VS TITANS

Venue: Bank of America Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The Tennessee Titans are 2-0 since making the switch to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback but face one of the league’s most formidable and varied pass rushes in Carolina this week with another backup quarterback in Kyle Allen already used to playing the role of spoiler. The Panthers have already registered 30 sacks on the season – just one behind the league-leading Patriots in this statistic despite playing in seven games to New England’s eight. It is a pack of Panthers preying on rival quarterbacks with nine different pass rushers registering at least two sacks, led by Mario Addison’s 6.5. Bullish runner Derrick Henry gives the Titans an obvious counterpunch to combat the Panthers rush and Carolina is hurting inside with defensive tackles Gerald McCoy (knee) and Vernon Butler (hip) missing practice this week. The Panthers’ defense also was missing versatile linebacker Shaq Green-Thompson and heavy-hitting safety Eric Reid. Most critical to Carolina’s game plan, of course, is star running back Christian McCaffrey, who was limited during Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury. The visiting Titans have medical concerns of their own on defense with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jurrell Casey (shoulder) and starting cornerbacks Malcolm Butler (hamstring) and Adoree’ Jackson (foot) all listed as questionable. Tight end Delanie Walker remains out of practice with the same troublesome ankle which ended his season after just one game last year.

Win: Carolina Panthers | $1.54 – Unibet
Line: Tennessee Titans +3.5 | $1.90 – Beteasy
Total Points: Under 41.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Titans are 3-4-1 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee’s last 7 games
  • Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Panthers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

Key Injuries:

Tennessee Titans – G Rodger Saffold (Concussion) is listed as day-to-day.

Carolina Panthers – WR Jarius Wright (Leg) is listed as day-to-day.

BILLS VS REDSKINS

Venue: New Era Field | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The Washington Redskins were hoping to have stalwart left tackle Trent Williams back for Sunday’s game at the Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, N.Y., but it appears that won’t happen. Williams ended his holdout Tuesday and reported to the team, but reports say he still does not intend to play, and he did not practice Wednesday due to discomfort with his helmet relating to scalp surgery he had during the offseason to remove a cyst. It’s unclear who will start at quarterback for Washington (1-7), as quarterback Case Keenum was concussed on Oct. 24 at Minnesota. First-round rookie Dwayne Haskins, who replaced Keenum in that game, has yet to make his first NFL start. Meanwhile, the Bills (5-2) are coming off their worst performance of the season, losing 31-13 at home to Philadelphia. They gained a season-low 253 yards and allowed 371, the second-highest total of the season. The 31 points allowed were 14 more than the previous high permitted this year. Josh Allen has thrown two touchdowns and no interceptions in each of his last two games, but he fumbled three times (losing one) and completed less than half of his attempts (16 of 34) against the Eagles.

Win: Buffalo Bills | $1.22 – Sportsbet
Line: Washington Redskins +9.5 | $1.91 – Beteasy
Total Points: Under 37.5 | $1.85 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Bills are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
  • Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Redskins
  • Redskins are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games
  • Redskins are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road

Key Injuries:

Washington Redskins – CB Quinton Dunbar (Hamstring), QB Case Keenum (Concussion) and DB Jeremy Reaves (Head) are all listed as day-to-day.

Buffalo Bills – CB Levi Wallace (Shoulder), T Cody Ford (Elbow) and CB Kevin Johnson (Undisclosed) are all listed as day-to-day.

CHIEFS VS VIKINGS

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

Patrick Mahomes could return, but the Kansas City Chiefs are playing it close to the chest entering a matchup with a ferocious defense led by a pass rush with serious teeth. The Chiefs are not without other variables and their injury list is a roll call of significant contributors yet again. The Chiefs haven’t lost four games in a row at Arrowhead since 2013-14. They’ll need to contain Stefon Diggs on the outside with a secondary missing a great cover man.

Win: Minnesota Vikings | $1.71 – Pointsbet
Line: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | $1.86 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Over 42.5 | $1.91 – Beteasy

  • Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Chiefs are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games at home
  • Vikings are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games against Kansas City

Key Injuries:

Minnesota Vikings – WR Adam Thielen (Hamstring) is listed as day-to-day

Kansas City Chiefs – QB Patrick Mahomes (Knee), CB Bashaud Breeland (Shoulder) and DE Alex Okafor (Ankle) are all listed as day-to-day; DE Frank Clark (Neck) is out indefinitely.

DOLPHINS VS JETS

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

Harmony has been hard to find for the New York Jets under Adam Gase, a concept with which the Miami Dolphins are fully familiar. When quarterback Sam Darnold isn’t seeing “ghosts” he has been throwing the ball into tight windows to poor results. Darnold is playing with a left thumb injury. That could be a reason to allow running back Le’Veon Bell to test a Dolphins’ defense gouged by the Pittsburgh Steelers and James Conner on Monday night. Miami can put up points in spurts and seems to be more consistent in the first half under quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But a unit nearly bereft of skill talent, Miami isn’t equipped to go blow for blow with any team. A loss by the Dolphins keeps the team on pace to have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. A win puts the Cincinnati Bengals (0-8) in the driver’s seat and tightens the race to the bottom.

Win: New York Jets | $1.58 – Bet365
Line: Miami Dolphins +3.0 | $1.98 – Beteasy
Total Points: Over 42.5 | $1.97 – Sportsbet

  • Dolphins are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games at home
  • Jets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games
  • Jets are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games

Key Injuries:

Miami Dolphins – CB Ken Webster (Leg) and G Shaq Callhoun (Illness) are both listed as day-to-day.

New York Jets –QB Sam Darnold (Thumb) and CB Trumaine Johnson (Ankle) are both listed as day-to-day; C Ryan Kalil (Knee) is out indefinitely.

SEAHAWKS VS BUCCANEERS

Venue: CenturyLink Field | Start: 8:05am AEDT

After nearly squandering a 24-0 halftime lead over the wing-clipped Atlanta Falcons and journeyman quarterback Matt Schaub, the Seahawks return home to CenturyLink Field to host another heavy-footed passer in Jameis Winston. The Seahawks are hoping that the always-raucous 12th Man can help boost a sagging pass rush that recorded just two sacks of Schaub (on 58 passing attempts!) and allowed him to throw for a career-high 525 yards and two touchdowns in the comeback effort. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, attempted just five passes in the second half as Seattle featured running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny, bleeding the clock. The game plan could be much different for Seattle in this contest given that the Bucs are the league’s stingiest against the run (surrendering just 68.6 yards per game) but rank 31st in pass defense, surrendering 285.1 yards per game and 14 touchdowns against just five interceptions. Tyler Lockett has emerged as one of the NFL’s most dangerous receivers – demonstrating terrific rapport on Wilson on off-script plays, especially – and rookie D.K. Metcalf caught two touchdowns in the win over Atlanta. Tampa Bay’s pass-catchers are even more formidable with Mike Evans and breakout star Chris Godfrey among five receivers currently tied with an NFL-leading six touchdowns on the season. The Seahawks are expected to get back starting defensive backs Tre Flowers (neck) and Bradley McDougald (back), a former Buc, for this game, after each missed the Atlanta contest.

Win: Seattle Seahawks | $1.45 – Unibet
Line: Seattle Seahawks -5.5 | $1.93 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Under 53.5 | $1.94 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

Bucs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
Bucs are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games on the road
Seahawks are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Seahawks are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games at home

Key Injuries:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – TE O.J. Howard (Hamstring) is listed as day-to-day

Seattle Seahawks – C Justin Britt (Knee) is out for the season.

RAIDERS VS LIONS

Venue: RingCentral Coliseum | Start: 8:05am AEDT

When the Detroit Lions visit Oakland on Sunday, it will be the Raiders’ first true home game since Sept. 15, way back in Week 2. Since then, the Raiders have visited Minnesota, Indianapolis, London — for a pseudo “home” game vs. Chicago — and then Green Bay and Houston following a Week 6 bye. Sunday begins a string of three straight home games for the Raiders (3-4), all against teams without a winning record. The Lions (3-3-1) are opening back-to-back road games after they snapped a three-game losing streak with a victory over the Giants last week. Detroit’s three losses have come against teams with a combined record of 18-6. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw three more touchdowns against New York, giving him 16 against only four interceptions on the season. He is on pace to comfortably surpass his best career marks in yards per attempt (8.4 currently) and passer rating (105.3). Derek Carr is also on pace for career highs in those categories (7.7 and 103.6, respectively), and he’s leading the NFL with a 72.1 percent completion rate while tossing 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. With veteran center Rodney Hudson (ankle) expected to miss time, Carr could take snaps from Richie Incognito, normally the starting left guard, on Sunday.

Win: Oakland Raiders | $1.77 – Unibet
Line: Oakland Raiders -2.5 | $1.90 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Over 50.5 | $1.87 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Lions are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
  • Raiders are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland’s last 5 games

Key Injuries:

Detroit Lions – DT Damon Harrison Sr. (Groin) and DB Tracy Walker (Knee) are listed as day-to-day.

Oakland Raiders –LB Justin Phillips (Knee) is out for the season; WR Dwayne Harris (Ankle), C Rodney Hudson (Ankle) and DE Josh Mauro (Groin) are all listed as day-to-day; WR Zay Jones (Recent Trade) is probable for Sunday.

CHARGERS VS PACKERS

Venue: Dignity Health Sports Park | Start: 8:25am AEDT

Behind another MVP-caliber performance from Aaron Rodgers and a rejuvenated defense, the red-hot Green Bay Packers are passing the sniff test. The Chargers, on the other hand, have been running on dead batteries for much of the season, leading head coach Anthony Lynn to relieve offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt of his duties this week in the hopes of creating a spark. Don’t be surprised if the firing – and second game back from pass rusher Melvin Ingram – does precisely that for the Chargers. It was not a coincidence that Joey Bosa (seven solo tackles, two sacks) enjoyed one of the best performances of his young career in the Chargers’ 17-16 win in Chicago last week with Ingram back on the field. Along with bottling up Green Bay’s suddenly explosive 1-2 punch of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in the running game, the key to beating the Packers remains making Rodgers uncomfortable and he already is that with a sore knee. Rodgers, Jones (shoulder) and tight end Jimmy Graham (shoulder) were limited participants in Green Bay’s Wednesday walk-through, as was Davante Adams (toe). Adams hasn’t played in more than a month, but could be back Sunday night. Fellow Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen (hamstring) was limited in Wednesday’s practice for Los Angeles, as was left tackle Russell Okung (calf).

Win: Green Bay Packers | $1.61 – Unibet
Line: Los Angeles Chargers +3 | $1.90 – Beteasy
Total Points: Over 49.5 | $1.94 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Packers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games
  • Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
  • LA Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS in their last 8 games
  • LA Chargers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Packers

Key Injuries:

Green Bay Packers – T Bryan Bulaga (Hand) and RB Aaron Jones (Shoulder) are both listed as day-to-day.

Los Angeles Chargers – T Russell Okung (Calf) is listed as day-to-day.

BRONCOS VS BROWNS

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High | Start: 8:25am AEDT

The Denver Broncos’ quarterback carousel continues to spin as the Cleveland Browns visit on Sunday. With Joe Flacco sidelined with a herniated disk in his neck, Brandon Allen will start in his NFL debut and become the sixth Bronco to start since Peyton Manning retired following Denver’s Super Bowl 50 victory. Second-round rookie Drew Lock is healthy following a preseason thumb injury, but the team has said he isn’t yet ready to play. Allen’s mobility could be welcome, as Flacco has been sacked 26 times through eight games, including 11 alone over the last two games, both losses. The Broncos (2-6) will be looking to avenge a December home loss to the Browns (2-5) last year, in which Nick Chubb rushed for 100 yards on 20 carries. Chubb lost two fumbles in last week’s loss at New England, giving him three fumbles in his last two games after he previously hadn’t fumbled in the NFL. Cleveland will look to snap a three-game losing streak, after its last victory — at Baltimore in Week 4 — gave it a temporary edge in the AFC North. Odell Beckham Jr. has not scored since Week 2, his only touchdown of the year. He’s looking for his third 100-yard game on the season, after he had one two weeks ago vs. Seattle.

Win: Cleveland Browns | $1.52 – Unibet
Line: Cleveland Browns -3.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under 39.5 | $1.93 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Browns are 4-21 SU in their last 25 games on the road
  • Broncos are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home
  • Broncos are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games

Key Injuries:

Cleveland Browns – S Sheldrick Redwine (Hamstring) is listed as day-to-day.

Denver Broncos – QB Joe Flacco (Neck), RB Royce Freeman (Shoulder), LB Todd Davis (Knee), TE Jeff Heuerman (Knee), T Je’Waun James (Knee) and OL Dalton Risner (Ankle) are all listed day-to-day.

RAVENS VS PATRIOTS

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium | Start: 12:20pm AEDT

Coming off of three straight wins before their bye week, the Baltimore Ravens look to make it four in a row against the undefeated New England Patriots in Foxborough, Mass. on Sunday. The Ravens’ last victory, 30-16 at Seattle in Week 7, was their first by multiple scores since Week 1, as they improved to 5-2. The Patriots, meanwhile, have won by at least 14 points in all but one of their eight victories racking up a point differential of plus-189. That’s tied for the second-best figure through a team’s first eight games in NFL history, trailing only the Patriots’ 2007 team (plus-204) that went 16-0. New England’s defense has allowed just four touchdowns all season, with no more than one in any single game. The Ravens’ offense scored just one of the team’s three touchdowns — two came on defense — in Seattle, but the unite accounted for 21 touchdowns through the first six games. Lamar Jackson completed less than half of his passes (9 of 20) against the Seahawks, but he’s ramped up his rushing lately, collecting 268 yards on 33 carries (8.1 average) over the last two games. On the other side, Tom Brady snapped a streak of four straight games with an interception last week, throwing for 259 yards and two scores against the Browns.

Win: New England Patriots | $1.58 – Pointsbet
Line: Baltimore Ravens | $1.87 – Beteasy
Total Points: Over 45.5 | $1.93 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games
  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
  • Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home

Key Injuries:

New England Patriots – no new injuries currently listed

Baltimore Ravens – LB Pernell McPhee (Tricep) is on injured reserve.