EPL Week 12 Betting Preview


Another week, another full slate of EPL football on the cards. We’ve got a highly-anticipated matchup between the top two this week, with Liverpool hosting City on Monday morning. Get free access to our EPL tips for each of the games. There’s another game featuring two sides at the other end of the table, with Watford travelling to Norwich to kick things off. We’ll cover these two games and everything in between as we analyse where the value lies in all 10 games this weekend.

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Saturday, November 9

Norwich vs Watford

Venue: Carrow Road | Start: 07:00

Norwich: It’s no secret that Norwich have been poor this season, sitting in 19th place with just 7 points thus far. They were outplayed again last week, losing 2-0 away at Brighton. Their once potent attack has become very anaemic, managing just 40% possession and failing to get a shot on target last week. Their home form is admittedly slightly better, managing 2 wins from 5 so far.

Watford: Watford remain rooted to the bottom of the table, winless with just 5 points so far. They fought hard last weekend, ultimately succumbing to a more talented Chelsea side 2-1. Their attack still remains rather toothless, only managing 2 goals in their last 6 league games. Their road form still leaves a lot to be desired, registering just 2 points from 5 so far.

Analysis: This is definitely a 6-pointer, with both sides desperately needing a win. Given the lack of attacking success for both sides so far, I’m predicting a very low-scoring clash here. I think 1-0 will be the final scoreline, with a slightly more talented Watford side getting the road win. Watford to win by exactly 1 goal is decent value as is under 2.5 total goals.

Head to Head: Watford
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Watford
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

Venue: Stamford Bridge | Start: 23:30

Chelsea: Chelsea are looking very impressive of late, sitting comfortably in the top 4 with 23 points so far. They had another solid road win last weekend, taking care of strugglers Watford 2-0. Tammy Abraham continues to look like a future star up front, netting the opener again last week. They’ve been surprisingly worse at home so far, managing only 8 points from their first 5 games at Stamford Bridge.

Crystal Palace: Palace have been solid but unspectacular this season, currently in 9th place with 15 points. Their recent form hasn’t been all that great, picking up a solitary point from their last 3 games. They could definitely be more productive going forward, netting just 10 goals so far. They’ve been a decent road side again this year, picking up 7 points from 5 road clashes.

Analysis: While Palace are a decent road side, Chelsea are starting to look like a very consistent force. Even with a mid-week Champions League fixture, I think they’re clearly the more talented of these two sides. I don’t expect them to run away with it, but I think a relatively close 2-1 win is on the cards. Chelsea by exactly 1 goal is good value here, as is over 2.5 goals on the total side.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sunday, November 10

Burnley vs West Ham

Venue: Turf Moor | Start: 02:00

Burnley: A mixed start to the campaign has Burnley in 14th place with 12 points so far. They were especially poor last week, falling 3-0 away at Sheffield United. Their usually stout defence has faltered of late, conceding 7 goals in their last two games. They remain a much better side at home, winning 3 out of 5 so far.

West Ham: The Hammers have been another middling side this season, sitting in 13th with 13 points of their own. They’ve had a very poor last 5 games, culminating in a home loss to Newcastle last week. After an impressive start to the campaign, their last win came in mid-September against Man United. They remain a respectable road side, with 6 points from 5 away games placing them 10th in the form table.

Analysis: This is an interesting battle between two Premier League mainstays that aren’t in great recent form. Turf Moor remains a very tough place to play and I expect a motivated Burnley performance here. A draw looks like the safe and most likely outcome here, with a 1-1 scoreline looking particularly likely. This is another spot where I like the middle opportunity with under 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: West Ham/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tottenham vs Sheffield United

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Start: 02:00

Tottenham: A sluggish start to the campaign has Spurs in 11th place with just 13 points thus far. They had an intense match with Everton last week, one which ended in a controversial 1-1 draw. South Korean star Son Heung Min received a straight red card, meaning he’s out here through suspension. Spurs have definitely been better at home this season, managing 10 points from 5 games so far.

Sheffield United: The Blades have been a pleasant surprise this season, sitting in 6th place with 16 points so far. They were especially impressive last weekend, managing a very comfortable 3-0 home win over Burnley. Their defence has been their hallmark thus far, conceding just 8 goals and tying Leicester for the league-lead. They’re actually unbeaten on the road this season, managing a win and 4 draws through their first 5.

Analysis: While Sheffield United have impressed thus far, I’m not sure they’re the type of team that will consistently pick up points against the big six. Tottenham are still very good at home and I expect their defence to perform well here. 2-0 Spurs seems fairly probable to me, meaning they’re good value at the current -1 handicap. I like Spurs to win to nil here, as well as under 2.5 goals for good measure.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Newcastle vs Bournemouth

Venue: St James’ Park | Start: 02:00

Newcastle: Newcastle have been surprisingly decent so far, sitting in 15th place with 12 points. They had a really good result last week, scoring the first 3 goals to beat West Ham 3-2 on the road. They’d only scored 6 goals in the previous 10 league games, suggesting that attacking production is still a concern. They’re not a great home side, but they’ve only lost once in 5 league games at St James’ Park so far.

Bournemouth: The Cherries are currently sitting pretty in 7th, registering 16 points from their first 11 games. They had a high-profile win last time out, a 1-0 home win over Man United. This broke a streak of 5 matches without a win, which suggests they may have turned a corner. They’re a fairly capable road side, picking up 7 points in 5 away games thus far.

Analysis: While Bournemouth have had a largely good season, I think they’re definitely primed for a letdown spot here. Newcastle have been fairly competitive this season and they’re a tough out at home. I expect a competitive and low-scoring game here, with a draw looking like the most likely result. 0-0 and 1-1 are the two most plausible scorelines, with under 2.5 goals looking like a strong additional bet.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Southampton vs Everton

Venue: St Mary’s | Start: 02:00

Southampton: The Saints look to be in shambles at the moment, sitting in the relegation zone with just 8 points. They definitely looked better last week against City, although inevitably lost 2-1 after conceding a bevy of chances. This was the type of reaction they wanted after the previous week, where they were brutally taken apart by Leicester 9-0. They remain the worst home side in the league, with just 1 point and a -15 goal difference coming from their 5 games.

Everton: Everton have hugely disappointed this season, sitting in 17th place with just 11 points. This would be relegation form in most seasons, but a few especially bad teams this year has them narrowly avoiding the drop. They looked a lot more cohesive last week, impressing in a 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Their away form has been brutal thus far, picking up just a solitary point from 5 games.

Analysis: While most wouldn’t have expected this in the pre-season, this has the makings of a relegation 6-pointer here. They were substantially better last week, but I still get the feeling Southampton are set for relegation this season. I think Everton finally get a credible road result here, doing just enough to secure a 2-1 win. With both sides struggling mightily defensively, I also see value in BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Everton
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Everton
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Leicester vs Arsenal

Venue: King Power Stadium | Start: 04:30

Leicester: The Foxes have been incredibly impressive thus far, sitting in 3rd place with 23 points through 11 games. They’ve scored 27 goals and conceded just 8, for a +19 goal difference that is 2nd behind Man City. They had another impressive result last time out, a professional 2-0 road win at Crystal Palace. They’ve been elite at home so far, picking up 13 points from their first 5 games.

Arsenal: Arsenal enter this one in 5th place with 17 points, although this does place them 6 points behind the top 4. The 1-1 draw with Wolves last week was another relatively poor result, one which has put Unai Emery’s job under threat. They haven’t looked remarkably impressive in most games so far, managing only a +1 goal difference. Their road form continues to be relatively poor, managing just a point per game thus far.

Analysis: Based on the metrics so far this season, Leicester have definitely looked like the better of these two sides. The King Power Stadium is also looking like a real fortress, while Arsenal continue to struggle on the road. I think this is a game where Leicester announce themselves as real contenders, managing a 2-1 win in primetime. Both sides have definite talent going forward, meaning that over 2.5 goals and BTTS are solid additional options.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, November 11

Wolves vs Aston Villa

Venue: Molineux | Start: 01:00

Wolves: Wolves are having somewhat of a consolidating campaign, sitting in 12th place with 13 points so far. They had a decent result last time out, managing a well-earned point away at Arsenal. The Europa League has really impacted their Premier League campaign this year and they’ll be backing up quickly after another Friday morning start. Their home form is still relatively poor, managing just 6 points from 5 games at Molineux so far.

Aston Villa: It has been a struggle at times, but Villa find themselves just outside the relegation zone with 11 points. They looked certain for a result against Liverpool last week, but two late goals meant they lost 2-1. Their 16 goals going forward is relatively impressive, but the 18 conceded is too many to be a stable mid-table side. They just aren’t good on the road either, managing 1 win and 4 losses so far.

Analysis: Although they have a Europa League game mid-week, the lack of travel should help Wolves here. Villa are very vulnerable defensively and I can see Wolves controlling the game in this one. I can see a 2-goal final margin in this one, meaning Wolves -1 and 2-0 are solid bets. From a total side, I like under 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Head to Head: Wolves
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Wolves
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Venue: Old Trafford | Start: 01:00

Manchester United: Man Utd are in the midst of a poor season by their standards, sitting in 10th place with just 13 points. They had another disappointing result last week, a 1-0 defeat away at Bournemouth. They’re still defending relatively well, but they’ll need to improve on 13 goals scored in 11 goals. They’ve been a better side at Old Trafford, managing 8 points from 5 home games so far.

Brighton: Brighton are looking like a very capable side under Graham Potter, sitting 8th with 15 points. They had another convincing win last week, a comfortable 2-0 result at home to Norwich. They’ve been playing some free-flowing attacking football of late, scoring 5 goals in their last 2. Their form does dip noticeably away from home, managing just 4 points from 5 away games so far.

Analysis: Despite some improved form of late, Brighton still struggle to get the job done away from home. United are nothing special, but they remain a side capable of grinding out results at home. I think they win this by a single goal, with 2-1 sticking out as a likely result. This also creates some value on the total side, specifically over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Head to Head: Man United
Half-time/Full-time: Man United/Man United
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Liverpool vs Manchester City

Venue: Anfield | Start: 03:30

Liverpool: Liverpool have had a near flawless campaign, managing 10 wins and a draw from their first 11 games. They were in danger at Aston Villa last week, but a goal in the 87th minute and another in injury time rescued all 3 points. They’ve seemingly mastered the art of the narrow win this season, with their goal difference trailing both Leicester and Man City. Anfield remains a very tough place to play and they’ve picked up maximum points in all league games there this season.

Manchester City: City have looked increasingly solid of late, sitting comfortably in 2nd place with 25 points thus far. They also had a scare against Southampton last week, but ultimately secured a 2-1 win. A mid-week trip to Italy isn’t ideal and could have an impact on their preparations here. They remain an excellent road team under Guardiola, winning 4 of 5 road games thus far.

Analysis: This has all the makings of another classic, just like we saw with these two sides last season. There are a few optics against City and they’ve got a few key injuries, but I also think Liverpool have had a lot of luck go their way this season. I see a relatively cagey affair between two evenly-matched teams, one that ultimately ends in a 1-1 draw. I like BTTS in this one, which creates a nice hedge and middle opportunity with under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes