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Monday, November 11, 2019

TITANS VS CHIEFS

Venue: Nissan Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) won’t rush the reigning league MVP back onto the field until it’s safe to do so, but most signs point to quarterback Patrick Mahomes returning from a two-game absence to start against the Tennessee Titans (4-5) in Nashville on Sunday. Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday for the first time since dislocating his right kneecap on Oct. 17 in Denver. The Chiefs are also getting healthier elsewhere, with defensive end Frank Clark (neck) and cornerback Kendall Fuller (thumb) returning to practice after recent absences. They could provide additional reinforcements to a 22nd-ranked defense that has held opponents to 887 yards over the past three games after permitting at least 425 in four of the first six games. The Titans, meanwhile, are coming off of their first defeat with Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback. They dug a 17-0 halftime deficit at Carolina — their fourth time going scoreless in the first half this season — and went on to lose 30-20, as Tannehill threw two interceptions. Tennessee still hit the 20-point mark for the third time in as many games with Tannehill, after doing so just twice through six weeks with Marcus Mariota at the helm. The Titans have won three straight meetings with the Chiefs — all in Kansas City — including 22-21 in the wild-card playoffs in January of 2018.

Win: Kansas City Chiefs | $1.38 – Beteasy
Line: Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | $1.91 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Under 49.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Titans
  • Titans are 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
  • Titans are 3-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

JETS VS GIANTS

Venue: MetLife Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The New York Jets (1-7) hope to put an ugly loss at Miami behind them when they “host” their MetLife roommates, the New York Giants (2-7), in a battle of seven-loss teams on Sunday in East Rutherford, N.J. The Jets lost their third straight game — being outscored by 55 points over that span — with a 26-18 loss to the previously winless Dolphins, who had entered with a point differential of minus-161. Since a promising return from mononucleosis in Week 6 in a victory over Dallas (338 yards, two touchdowns, one interception), Sam Darnold has thrown for just 564 yards with three touchdowns, 12 interceptions and 12 sacks taken over the three-game skid. The Giants are in similarly dire straits, having lost five consecutive games since rookie quarterback Daniel Jones won his first two starts. Jones threw an interception — his eighth of the year — and fumbled twice in Monday night’s 37-18 home loss to the Cowboys. He has been sacked 16 times while fumbling eight times across the past three games alone. The Giants’ offense will be missing wideout Sterling Shepard (concussion protocol) and Evan Engram (foot). On the other side, Jets running back Le’Veon Bell is battling a knee injury that required an MRI this week, though head coach Adam Gase expects him to “be alright.”

Win: New York Giants | $1.68 – Unibet
Line: New York Giants -3.5 | $1.96 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under 44.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
  • NY Giants are 3-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • NY Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
  • NY Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants’ last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets’ last 6 games

BEARS VS LIONS

Venue: Soldier Field | Start: 5:00am AEDT

Two slumping teams will meet when the Detroit Lions (3-4-1) visit the Chicago Bears (3-5) near the shores of Lake Michigan on Sunday afternoon. Chicago has dropped four consecutive games as its offense has sputtered badly in the second year under head coach Matt Nagy. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has regressed in his third season, and he is coming off a lowly performance against the Philadelphia Eagles in which he completed only one pass to Pro Bowl wide receiver Allen Robinson. Trubisky has a lowly 43.5 completion percentage and has thrown two of his three interceptions this season inside the red zone. The Bears have only a minus-2 point differential on the season, but that’s due only to the strength of their sixth-ranked scoring defense. The Lions have dropped four of their past five contests, including a 31-24 setback last week against the Oakland Raiders. The team lost despite another big statistical performance from quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns. It was his ninth career game with 400-plus passing yards. Wide receiver Kenny Golladay will aim for his third straight game with 100-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola will create difficult matchups for the Bears’ secondary, which means it will be important for Chicago’s defensive lineman to prevent Stafford from getting too comfortable. Minus injured Kerryon Johnson, Detroit’s 21st-ranked ground game is struggling, with rookie Ty Johnson unable to provide consistency as the lead back: 26 carries for 83 yards (3.2 ypc) and 0 TDs over the past three games).

Win: Chicago Bears | $1.68 – Bet365
Line: Chicago Bears -3.5 | $1.98 – Beteasy
Total Points: Over 40.5 | $1.92 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Lions are 4-4 ATS in their last 8 games
  • Lions are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games when playing Bears
  • Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago’s last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Chicago’s last 13 games

PACKERS VS PANTHERS

Venue: Lambeau Field | Start: 8:25am AEDT

On paper, Sunday’s matchup between the Carolina Panthers (5-3) and Green Bay Packers (7-2) looks like a potential playoff preview with the Packers leading the NFC North and the Panthers in the wild card hunt. In reality, this will be a litmus test for young Carolina quarterback Kyle Allen, who will make his first start at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay is 4-1 this season. MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers will be on the other sideline, but the Packers are coming off a lackluster 26-11 loss at the Chargers and Rodgers’ receiving corps continues to be beat up. Davante Adams continues to be limited by a turf toe injury and fellow wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling is battling a lingering ankle injury. Both gutted through the pain a week ago, but were minimally effective as Rodgers threw for just 161 yards and one touchdown in a game he characterized afterward as “a good slice of humble pie” for a club which entered LA on a four-game winning streak. The Chargers pressured Rodgers often. The visiting Panthers currently lead the NFL with 34 sacks in eight games. With Cam Newton placed on IR this week, it’s effectively Allen’s team for the remainder of the season. The former undrafted free agent has performed well above expectations, guiding the Panthers to a 5-1 record in his six starts. Christian McCaffrey has been the league’s MVP among non-QBs thus far this season but is dealing with a knee injury. Carolina defenders Gerald McCoy (knee), Eric Reid (ankle) and Vernon Butler (back) are also working to get healthy by game time. The Panthers, who are 3-1 on the road this season, have little margin for error as the enter the game with a miniscule plus-5 point differential. Ironically, while three of their first four games were decided by six points or less, the Panthers’ past four games have been decided by an average of 16.5 points – including a 51-13 blowout loss at San Francisco.

Win: Green Bay Packers | $1.48 – Unibet
Line: Carolina Panthers +4.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under 47.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
  • Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina’s last 5 games when playing Green Bay
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

BROWNS VS BILLS

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The Buffalo Bills (6-2) and Cleveland Browns (2-6) appear to be headed in opposite directions as the teams prepare to meet Sunday afternoon in Cleveland. Buffalo is a perfect 3-0 on the road this season and will try to stretch that winning streak to help strengthen its case for making the playoffs. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 0-3 at home and has dropped its past four overall. The Bills could look for another big game from rookie running back Devin Singletary, who had 140 yards from scrimmage (a career high) along with a rushing touchdown in last week’s 24-9 win against the Washington Redskins. On the opposite end of the career spectrum, Bills veteran running back Frank Gore needs 85 rushing yards to move past Barry Sanders for third place on the NFL’s all-time rushing list. Gore is sitting on 15,185 rushing yards while Sanders finished his career with 15,269. The ground game continues to be effective because quarterback Josh Allen is protecting the ball (5 TD passes, 0 interceptions over the past three games). Allen has completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes in both of the Bills’ losses this season and at least 61.5 percent in their six wins. Cleveland again will turn to Baker Mayfield, who passed for 273 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 24-19 loss at Denver but still has a 7-12 TD-INT ratio for the season. He has also been sacked 23 times through eight games. Browns wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. hauled in five catches for 87 yards, and this weekend he will look to tally six-plus receptions for the fourth home game in a row. Buffalo enters with the league’s No. 3 pass defense.

Win: Cleveland Browns | $1.68 – Unibet
Line: Cleveland Browns -2.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under 40.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Bills are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games
  • Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
  • Browns are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland’s last 24 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 6 games when playing Buffalo

BUCCANEERS VS CARDINALS

Venue: Raymond James Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

Moral victories do not count in the NFL but give the young Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers credit for keeping things surprisingly close a week ago in losses to NFC West powers San Francisco and Seattle, respectively. Cardinals rookie quarterback Kyler Murray and new backfield addition Kenyan Drake (two touchdowns) helped the Cardinals outscore the 49ers 18-7 in the second half on Thursday Night Football. Three days later, Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston hit wideout Mike Evans for 12 receptions, good for 180 yards and score to take the Seahawks to overtime in Seattle. Explosive offenses (and suspect secondaries) promise to be the big story Sunday in a game pitting the visiting Cardinals against their former head coach Bruce Arians. The Cardinals are allowing 280.7 yards per game through the air (29th in the NFL) and have given up a league-high 24 touchdowns with just two interceptions. The Bucs rank two spots lower than Arizona in pass defense, checking in 31st by surrendering an average of 293.5 yards per game. However, the club is quite stout against the run, allowing a league-low 78.1 yards per game. The run-plugging duo of Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh allow Tampa’s speedy linebackers Lavonte David and rookie Devin White to eat up opposing runners. Aiding the Cardinals is the expected return of starting running back David Johnson, who missed much of the past two games due to ankle and back injuries. Outside of a 31-9 setback at New Orleans in Week 8, four of Arizona’s past five games have been decided by an average of just 3.25 points.

Win: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | $1.47 – Bet365
Line: Arizona Cardinals +4.5 | $1.94 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Under 52.5 | $1.92 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
  • Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Bucs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games when playing Arizona

SAINTS VS FALCONS

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome | Start: 5:00am AEDT

The Atlanta Falcons (1-7) and New Orleans Saints (7-1) will be well-rested after both teams enjoyed a Week 9 bye that could help key players return to the lineup. New Orleans has won its past three matchups against Atlanta, and on paper it looks as though the streak should stretch to four. The Saints boast a dynamic offense led by veteran quarterback Drew Brees, who is coming off a great performance against the Arizona Cardinals in which he completed 34 of 43 passes (79.1 percent) for 373 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in his return from a thumb injury. His 53 passing touchdowns against the Falcons are the most against any opponent in his decorated career. Brees’ favorite target is wide receiver Michael Thomas, who had 11 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown in his last game. Dynamic running back Alvin Kamara and tight end Jared Cook are expected to return after missing the past two games due to ankle injuries. Atlanta’s best bet might be to slow the pace and control time of possession, which is possible thanks to a strong running back in Devonta Freeman. He had 102 yards from scrimmage in his last game, including 63 yards receiving and 39 yards on the ground. Backup quarterback Matt Schaub threw for more than 400 yards in his first start of the season before the bye, but there is hope that Matt Ryan (ankle) will be able to return to the lineup after taking part in limited practice mid-week. Falcons coach Dan Quinn kept his job over the bye week, but did make three changes to his offensive staff. While the Saints are 4-0 at home this season, the Falcons are winless in four road trips.

Win: New Orleans Saints | $1.14 – Unibet
Line: Atlanta Falcons +14.5 | $1.91 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Under 51.5 | $1.91 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
  • Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Saints are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’ last 8 games

BENGALS VS RAVENS

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium | Start: 5:00am AEDT

Riding a four-game winning streak, the visiting Baltimore Ravens (6-2) will seek a season sweep of the division-rival Cincinnati Bengals (0-8) on Sunday. The Ravens downed the Bengals 23-17 in Baltimore four weeks ago. That margin of defeat looks respectable for Cincinnati, especially after Baltimore won 30-16 at Seattle a Week later and routed the previously undefeated Patriots 37-20 in New England this past Sunday night. Lamar Jackson rushed for 61 yards and two scores against the Patriots, giving him 329 rushing yards and four touchdowns over the past three games. He had a season-high 152 rushing yards in the first meeting with the Bengals. The NFL’s last winless team, Cincinnati has pivoted toward evaluating young talent for the future, benching Andy Dalton during its bye last week and installing fourth-round rookie Ryan Finley as the starter. Finley, who has yet to take a snap in the regular season, went 47 of 64 for 414 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in three preseason games. He might be lacking in support, as Dalton was sacked 29 times through the first eight games, including five times in his final start. Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t helped either, ranking dead last in the NFL in yards per rush (5.09) and yards per pass (8.57) allowed. The Bengals have a minus-86 point differential on the season.

Win: Baltimore Ravens | $1.19 – Ladbrokes
Line: Cincinnati Bengals +10.5 | $1.92 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Over 44.5 | $1.93 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Ravens are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
  • Ravens are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
  • Bengals are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Ravens
  • Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Ravens

COLTS VS DOLPHINS

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium | Start: 8:05am AEDT

Fresh off of their first victory of the season, the Miami Dolphins (1-7) will try to make it two in a row when they visit the Indianapolis Colts (5-3) on Sunday. The Dolphins entered Week 9 at 0-7 and with a point differential of minus-161, but they jumped on the Jets early at home last Sunday and won 26-18. Miami could be in for another close one this week, as the Colts have yet to have a game decided by more than seven points all season. Indianapolis saw its three-game win streak snapped at Pittsburgh in Week 9, with backup Brian Hoyer playing most of the contest after Jacoby Brissett left with a knee injury. Brissett was able to practice on a limited basis on Wednesday, but his status against the Dolphins will be determined late in the week. Adam Vinatieri missed a potential game-winning field-goal attempt in the final minute against the Steelers. He has now missed two field goals and two extra points over the past two weeks after missing just one kick total in Weeks 3-7. The Colts have won six of the past seven against the Dolphins, including a 27-24 victory in Indianapolis last year, in which they rallied from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit. Much will be decided by how well Miami protect the ball. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has a 5-7 TD-INT ratio in the six loss in which he played this season, but was not picked off while throwing a trio of touchdowns last week. To be fair, most of Fitzpatrick’s turnovers have come while pressing to get the Dolphins back in the game as all of his seven interceptions after come with Miami trailing by more than seven points.

Win: Indianapolis Colts | $1.20 – Unibet
Line: Miami Dolphins +10.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Over 43.5 | $1.91 – Sportsbet

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Colts
  • Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Colts are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home
  • Colts are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Dolphins

STEELERS VS RAMS

Venue: Heinz Field | Start: 8:25am AEDT

Winners of two in a row and coming off a Week 9 bye, the Los Angeles Rams travel to Pittsburgh to face an even hotter Steelers squad that has rattled off three consecutive victories of their own, including an improbable road win in Indianapolis last week. Both teams have caught fire since splashy trades for talented defensive backs Jalen Ramsey (Rams) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (Steelers). The latter intercepted his fourth pass in seven games since joining Pittsburgh, returning it 96 yards for a key touchdown against the Colts. A playmaking defense was the story in the Steelers’ win over the Colts with quarterback Mason Rudolph throwing for just 191 yards and a single touchdown along with an interception while kicker Chris Boswell (four field goals) provided most of Pittsburgh’s points. The Steelers are hoping starting running back James Conner can return from a shoulder injury that kept him out against Indianapolis. His primary backup, Jaylen Samuels, lost a key fumble against Indianapolis. Benny Snell (knee) has already been ruled out and Trey Edmunds (ribs) did not practice mid-week. The Rams are relatively healthy, though speedy receiver Brandin Cooks has already been ruled out with a concussion, as the six-year veteran was scheduled to meet a second time with specialists. Los Angeles’ offense has not been as explosive in 2019 (No. 10 in total offense), but Pittsburgh is likely going to need to generate more out of a passing game that is producing an average of only 202.4 yards per game.

Win: Los Angeles Rams | $1.49 – Unibet
Line: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | $1.92 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Under 43.5 | $1.94 – Beteasy

NFL Betting Trends:

  • LA Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
  • LA Rams are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
  • Steelers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
  • Steelers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games

COWBOYS VS VIKINGS

Venue: AT&T Stadium | Start: 12:20pm AEDT

The Dallas Cowboys (5-3) will go for their third consecutive win in a prime-time showdown at home against the Minnesota Vikings (6-3) on Sunday night. Dallas is 3-1 at home and is coming off back-to-back wins against the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles, pushing the Cowboys’ record to 4-0 against the NFC East and 1-3 outside of the division. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been a huge part of the Cowboys’ resurgence, and he will look for his fourth consecutive 100-yard game against the Vikings. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is the best threat but not the only one for quarterback Dak Prescott, who also has connected with wide receiver Michael Gallup nine times for 115 yards and a scores over the past three games. Minnesota will try to bounce back from a 26-23 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs last week, which snapped a four-game winning streak. Dalvin Cook, much like Elliott for the Cowboys, is an electrifying player in the backfield who enters Week 10 leading the NFL with 894 rushing yards. Cook has seven games this season with at least 100 yards from scrimmage, which is the best mark in the NFL. The Vikings are 2-3 on the road and have outscored their first nine opponents by a combined 76 points this season. However, their only victory over a team with a winning record was a 38-20 home win over the 5-4 Philadelphia Eagles. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been playing well of late, but a Week 8 victory over lowly Washington will do little to quell critics who point out that he was 5-13 in primetime games and 4-24 against teams with winning records entering this season.

Win: Dallas Cowboys | $1.57 – Bet365
Line: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 | $1.95 – Sportsbet
Total Points: Under 48.5 | $1.92 – Ladbrokes

NFL Betting Trends:

  • Vikings are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Cowboys
  • Cowboys are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing Dallas
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 8 games