Premier League Betting Preview

The Premier League returns this weekend, with another full slate of fixtures after the international break. We kick things off in London, with West Ham hosting the slumping Spurs in the early Saturday kick-off. We get another exciting big six matchup this weekend, with Man City hosting Chelsea early on Sunday morning. We’ll take you through all 10 of these games, identifying where the value lies from a betting perspective.

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Saturday, November 23

West Ham vs Tottenham

Venue: London Stadium | Start: 23:30

West Ham: The Hammers have been on a major form dip of late, now sitting in 16th place with just 13 points. They had another poor result last time out, a dreadful 3-0 defeat away at Burnley. By the time their match kicks off this weekend, it’ll be over two months since they last experienced a win. They haven’t had a real home field advantage this season, collecting just 7 points from 6 games thus far.

Tottenham: Spurs are in free-fall right now, sitting in 14th place with just 14 points on the season. Many expected them to win at a canter last time out, yet they were held to a relatively lucky 1-1 draw with Sheffield United. They’re another side in dreadful league form, last managing a league win in September against lowly Southampton. Their road form has been truly dreadful this campaign, going winless and collecting just 3 points from 6 games.

Betting Analysis: Given the state Spurs are in, it’s extremely tough to back them to win. I thought West Ham could be in for a resurgent season under Pellegrini, but they’ve also looked woeful of late. I expect a competitive but rather low quality game of football here, one that likely ends up as a 1-1 draw. From a total side, I like the middle opportunity of BTTS and under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: West Ham/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sunday, November 24

Arsenal vs Southampton

Venue: Emirates | Start: 02:00

Arsenal: The Gunners have really fallen off of late, now sitting in 6th place on 17 points. They were thoroughly outclassed away at Leicester last time out, creating little and losing 2-0. This continued a very barren patch of form, where they’ve failed to win each of their last 4 league games. They’ve continued to be a top 6 side at home this season, which should bode well against a poor Southampton side.

Southampton: The Saints definitely look relegation bound, now sitting in 19th place with just 8 points. They had their chances against Everton last week, although they ultimately suffered a 2-1 home loss. It’s been a long time since they last tasted league success, a mid-September win over Sheffield United. Their road form is oddly 8th best in the league, picking up 7 of their 8 points on their travels.

Betting Analysis: Despite Southampton’s decent road form, I don’t see any result other than an Arsenal win here. They’ve got a huge talent edge across the pitch and will be looking to rebound after the loss to Leicester. I think their attack has a field day here, dominating en route to a comfortable 3-1 win. I expect a high-scoring affair here, meaning over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both in play.

Head to Head: Arsenal
Half-time/Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Brighton vs Leicester

Venue: Amex Stadium | Start: 02:00

Brighton: Brighton have had a quietly solid start to the season, sitting in 11th place with 15 points thus far. They had high hopes going to Old Trafford last week, although they were ultimately outclassed in a 3-1 defeat. This is likely a minor blip however, especially after 3 wins in their previous 4. They are definitely better as a home side, picking up 11 points at the Amex thus far.

Leicester City: Leicester are looking like a real threat this season, improving to 2nd place after another positive week. They had a professional 2-0 win over Arsenal last time out, allowing just 1 shot on target. They now possess the outright best defence in the league, conceding only 12 goals thus far. Their road form isn’t quite as good as their home form, although they’ve still managed 10 points from the first 6 games.

Betting Analysis: After a high-profile win last time out, now is the time for Leicester to back that up with a professional win against an inferior team. As good as Brighton have been thus far, I think there is a definite gulf in quality between these two sides. I’m expecting a late Jamie Vardy winner in this one that ultimately propels Leicester to a 2-1 win. Leicester by exactly 1 goal is good value here, as is BTTS.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Watford vs Burnley

Venue: Vicarage Road | Start: 02:00

Watford: Despite an atrocious start to the campaign, a recent uptick in form has taken Watford from 20th to 18th. They got their maiden win of the season last time out, a somewhat nervy 2-0 away win at Norwich. This concluded their best 5-game stretch of the league season, with their only negative result being a 1-0 defeat at Chelsea. They’ve been somewhat disastrous at home this season, with 0 wins and 3 draws through their first 6.

Burnley: Burnley continue to fly under the radar, sitting in 10th place with 15 points. They had a very impressive win last time out, a 3-0 win over West Ham. Their usually stout defence has been somewhat of an issue this season, conceding 18 goals through 12 total games. They’ve also been terrible away from home, sitting 19th in the form table with only 3 points thus far.

Betting Analysis: Watford have been solid in recent weeks and give off the vibe of a side that can avoid relegation. A few draws had masked otherwise strong performances and they finally got the breakthrough last week. Their momentum, coupled with Burnley’s atrocious away form, means Watford look good value to win here. I like the look of a 2-1 scoreline, with over 2.5 goals and Watford by exactly 1 goal as decent supplementary bets.

Head to Head: Watford
Half-time/Full-time: Watford/Watford
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Venue: Selhurst Park | Start: 02:00

Crystal Palace: It has been a mixed bag for Palace this season, who sit in 12th place with 15 points on the season. They had another poor but expected result last time out, a 2-0 defeat away at Chelsea. They’ve had a very tough schedule of late, with their last 4 games against top 6 sides resulting in just 1 total point. They still aren’t great at home under Hodgson, with their 8 points so far good for 16th in the form table.

Liverpool: Liverpool now sit comfortably in first place, having dropped just 2 points on the season. They had an impressive 3-1 win over rivals Man City last weekend, albeit in a match marred by VAR controversy. Expected goals suggests this team has about 10 points too many, although you can’t argue with the results. They lead the league with 16 road points thus far, building off impressive away performances from last year.

Betting Analysis: While Palace tend to do an effective job against top 6 sides, I don’t see them getting a result here. Liverpool have the matchup edge offensively and I think that’ll be more than enough to get them over the line. This has all the makings of a 2-1 Liverpool win, with Liverpool by exactly 1 looking like solid value. I like the look of over 2.5 goals in this one and can also see both sides scoring.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Bournemouth vs Wolves

Venue: Vitality Stadium | Start: 02:00

Bournemouth: Bournemouth continue to remain up there, entering this match week in 9th position with 16 points. This is despite a disappointing result last time out, where they fell 2-1 away at Newcastle. Their recent league form isn’t all that impressive, only registering 1 win in their last 6. They remain a solid yet unspectacular home side, picking up 2 wins and 3 draws through 6 home games.

Wolves: Wolves have been in much better form of late, now sitting in 8th place with 16 total points. They had another solid result last time out, a 2-1 win over rivals Aston Villa. This continues a strong recent league run, where they haven’t lost since mid-September against Chelsea. They’ve been a more than capable road side this season, losing just once and occupying a top 6 spot in the form table.

Betting Analysis: Despite featuring none of the ‘big six’ I actually see this as one of the more intriguing matches this weekend. Both of these sides play good football and I see a tense and competitive game here. This has all the makings of a tight 1-1 draw, with one side missing a key chance late on. Under 2.5 goals is a solid bet here, hedged nicely with BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Everton vs Norwich

Venue: Goodison Park | Start: 02:00

Everton: It’s been a pretty forgettable season for Everton thus far, who sit just 15th despite heavily investing in the squad. They picked up a much-needed win last time out, 2-1 on the road against Southampton. Richarlison continues to show flashes and it was no surprise to see him net the decisive goal. They’ve definitely been a better home side this season, sitting top half of the form table with 10 points thus far.

Norwich: It has been a disappointing return to the Premier League for Norwich, who are now rooted to the bottom of the table. They had a particularly disappointing loss last time out, falling 2-0 at home to a 10-man Watford outfit. In some positive news, they’re likely to have a few more players returning from injury after this international break. Their road form has still been historically bad, scoring just 1 goal and picking up only a single point thus far.

Betting Analysis: Even if they’re healthier for this one, I just don’t see Norwich going to a solid Everton side and getting a result. Goodison is still a difficult place to play and Everton’s form appears to be trending upwards. 2-0 Everton is my predicted scoreline here, meaning Everton -1 and Everton to nil are solid supplementary bets. I don’t see Norwich getting on the scoresheet, meaning under 2.5 and ‘no’ for BTTS also have value.

Head to Head: Everton
Half-time/Full-time: Everton/Everton
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Man City vs Chelsea

Venue: Etihad Stadium | Start: 04:30

Man City: It has been a mixed start to the campaign for City, who now sit 4th with 25 total points. While they’re a solid 8 points ahead of fifth, a loss to Liverpool last week makes their shot at a 3-peat that much more difficult. This side still looks great according to the numbers, scoring the most in the league and leading on the expected points table. The Etihad is still a very tough place to play, where they won 18 of 19 league games last year.

Chelsea: Chelsea have really come on under Lampard of late, now occupying 3rd place in the table with 26 total points. They had another professional result last time out, a comfortable 2-0 win over Crystal Palace. This marked 6 straight league wins for them, a run that has rocketed them up the table. Their road form is second to none this season, winning 5 of 6 games for 15 points.

Betting Analysis: Although Chelsea represent very tough opposition, I like City’s chances of another home win. I expect them to be much healthier after this break and they’ve historically been great after a loss under Guardiola. They’re relatively heavy favourites here and I ultimately see them pulling away with a 2-1 victory. The attacking chops of both sides means that over 2.5 goals is fairly likely, as is BTTS.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, November 25

Sheffield United vs Man United

Venue: Bramall Lane | Start: 03:30

Sheffield United: The Blades have quietly been very impressive this season, currently sitting in 5th place with 17 points. They put in a solid display at Tottenham last week, getting a well-earned point in a game they could’ve easily won. They continue to have the second best defence in the league, conceding just 9 goals thanks to their gritty style. They’ve been a mixed bag at Bramall Lane this season, winning 3 and losing 3 to sit in the middle of the form table.

Man United: After a ton of early criticism, United’s recently solid performances have moved them into 7th place with 16 points. They had a good week last week, winning comfortably in both the Europa and Premier League. This is another side supported by expected goals, where they still maintain a top 4 position. Their road form is still rather pedestrian, picking up just 5 points on their travels so far.

Betting Analysis: As good as Sheffield United have been, I can’t help but feel they’re overrated by the general public. They’ll play hard no doubt, but United still have a noticeable talent edge in this one. Ultimately, I think we’re in for a very hard-fought and competitive game, one that ends in a tight 1-1 draw. Both sides are focused on being solid at the back, meaning under 2.5 goals is definitely a value play.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tuesday, November 26

Aston Villa vs Newcastle

Venue: Villa Park | Start: 07:00

Aston Villa: Aston Villa have had a mixed campaign so far and they now find themselves 3 points above the drop in 17th place. They suffered another defeat last time out, 2-1 to rivals Wolves in a tense affair. This marked their third successive league defeat, after also recently falling to Man City and Liverpool. They’re solid but unspectacular at home, picking up 2 of every result to earn 8 points from their first 6 home games.

Newcastle: Newcastle find themselves currently mid-table, sitting in 13th place with 15 points so far. After being among the relegation favourites pre-season, they’re now just 2 points off Sheffield united in 5th. They had another solid result last time out, coming from behind to beat Bournemouth 2-1 at home. While they haven’t been great away from home this season, they’ve still managed 2 solid road wins thus far.

Betting Analysis: Given that they’ve lost three straight, I think Villa will have somewhat of a motivation edge heading into this one. They’re a much better side at home and I think they’ve got the mid-field capable of controlling the game. It has all the makings of a relatively close game, one that Villa likely win 1 or 2-0. I really like the look of under 2.5 goal here, which pairs nicely with Villa to win to nil.

Head to Head: Aston Villa
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Villa
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No