Thursday, November 28
Valencia vs Chelsea
Venue: Mestalla Stadium | Start: 04:55
Valencia: Valencia have been decent thus far, sitting in a 3-way tie atop their group with 7 points. They managed an impressive win in the reverse fixture, a late 1-0 at Stamford Bridge. They looked especially good last time out, securing a strong 4-1 win against Lille. Their domestic form hasn’t been as good, although they still sit comfortably mid-table in 9th.
Chelsea: Chelsea are also a part of that 3-way tie on 7 points, although they currently sit in 7th. They weren’t great in the reverse fixture but have significantly improved their form since then. They showed particularly strong resilience last time out, doing just enough to secure a 4-4 with Ajax. They’re currently an impressive 3rd in the EPL, although a weekend clash with Man City could certainly change that.
Betting Analysis: I think Chelsea is the slightly better of these two sides but the strong home field of Valencia does offset that somewhat. Depending on how other results go, a draw here is likely all Valencia require to own the tie-breaker. This should be a competitive affair that could go either way and I’ll ultimately settle for a 1-1 draw. I like the middle opportunity of BTTS coupled with under 2.5 goals.
Head to Head: Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes
Barcelona vs Dortmund
Venue: Nou Camp | Start: 07:00
Barcelona: Barcelona find themselves atop Group F, currently undefeated after 4 games with 8 points. They managed a decent draw in the reverse fixture, a 0-0 away at Dortmund. They were surprisingly poor last time out, getting held 0-0 by Slavia at home. Their domestic form has still been very impressive, sitting first in La Liga with a game in hand on most dies.
Dortmund: Dortmund are right on Barca’s tail, sitting just 1 point behind in 2nd place. They certainly had their chances in the reverse fixture, although they ultimately had to settle for a 0-0. They got an absolutely vital win last time out, 3-2 against Inter that dramatically improved their chance of qualifying for the knockouts. Their domestic form hasn’t been as good, where they sit just 6th with 19 points from 11.
Betting Analysis: Although they haven’t been particularly flashy, Barca have been getting the job done this season. I think they’re the better of these two sides and possess a very strong home field advantage. As good as Dortmund can be, I expect a professional 2-0 win that locks up first place for Barca. I like Barca to win to nil here, as well as Barca -1 and under 2.5 total goals.
Head to Head: Barcelona
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No
Liverpool vs Napoli
Venue: Anfield | Start: 07:00
Liverpool: Liverpool currently find themselves first in Group 3, managing 3 wins and a defeat from their first 4. That defeat came in the reverse fixture at Napoli, where they lost 2-0. They’ve done their job in the games since then, with a result here meaning they’re very likely to finish first. Their domestic league form has also been impressive thus far, enjoying an 8-point league in the EPL through 12 rounds.
Napoli: Napoli are almost a lock for top two, sitting 1 point behind Liverpool in second. They looked very impressive in the reverse fixture, beating Liverpool for the second straight year. While the defence has conceded just 3 goals thus far, you’d expect more than 6 goals scored considering their front three. They’ve also wobbled a bit domestically, currently occupying 7th place with just 19 points.
Betting Analysis: While Napoli got the W in the reverse fixture, going to Anfield is a completely different beast. I think Liverpool have the talent edge here and expect them to lock up first place with a home win. 2-1 looks like a fairly likely scoreline and I like the Liverpool to win by exactly 1 goal market. On the total side, I think over 2.5 and BTTS complement these bets nicely.
Head to Head: Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score