English Premier League Betting Preview

Week 14 promises to be another exciting one in the Premier League, with all 20 teams in action. The two Manchester sides book-end this week, with City kicking us off by travelling to Newcastle and United hosting Villa to finish. There’s also a relegation 6-pointer in the late Sunday morning game, with Southampton and Watford taking each other on. We’ll break down each of the 10 games, identifying where the value lies from a betting perspective.

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Saturday, November 30

Newcastle vs Man City

Venue: St James’ Park | Start: 23:30

Newcastle: It has been a mediocre season for Newcastle thus far, currently sitting in 14th place with 15 points. They had a relatively poor result last time out, falling 2-0 away at Aston Villa. They’ve been a much more competitive side at home this season, losing just once in their first 6 games. Having conceded 20 goals already, their defence will need to be much improved for this one.

Man City: It has been a solid yet unspectacular season for City, who currently sit 3rd with 28 points. They had an impressive result last time out, taking care of Chelsea 2-1 at home. Their attack has been humming all season, leading the league with an impressive 37 goals. They haven’t been as great on the road this season, with 2 away losses suggesting they’re potentially vulnerable.

Analysis: Even with a few key injuries, I think City match up very well with Newcastle here. I expect their midfield to control this one from start to finish, ultimately resulting in a comfortable win. 3-0 seems like a fairly likely scoreline here, with City to win to nil looking like another solid bet. I do think this one goes over 2.5, but a City clean sheet means both sides won’t score.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Sunday, November 31

Liverpool vs Brighton

Venue: Anfield | Start: 02:00

Liverpool: Liverpool sit comfortably atop the table with 37 points thus far. They had another late escape last weekend, getting past Crystal Palace 2-1. They’ve been especially good at home, yet to drop a point at Anfield thus far. They have a high profile Champions League clash midweek, but I’d still expect full focus here.

Brighton: Brighton have had a middling season thus far, currently occupying 12th place with 15 points. They suffered a home loss last time out, falling 2-0 to 2nd place Leicester City. Their early away form has been nothing to write home about, managing just 4 points from their first 6. They’ve struggled to score against some of the best sides, a trend which could continue in this one.

Analysis: I think Brighton will be comfortably safe come the end of the season, but they don’t match up well with Liverpool here. Anfield is a tough place to play and I’d expect the Reds to walk out 2-0 winners here. I like the look of Liverpool to win to nil here and also see some value on ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Burnley vs Crystal Palace

Venue: Turf Moor | Start: 02:00

Burnley: Burnley are having yet another strong Premier League season, currently occupying 7th spot with 18 points. They had another strong result last time out, a very comfortable 3-0 win over Watford. Their 20 goals scored suggests a ton of attacking improvement, but they need to clamp down on the 18 goals conceded. They’ve earned wins in 4 of their first 6 home games, indicative of the fortress that Turf Moor continues to be.

Crystal Palace: Palace have faded after a relatively strong start, currently sitting in 13th with 15 points. They put in a solid performance last weekend, but it ultimately wasn’t enough in a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool. Their attack has been downright woeful this season, with 11 goals scored only ahead of Watford. They’re still a top-half away side, managing 7 points from their first 6 road games this season.

Analysis: While Burnley have been impressive thus far, the numbers suggest there’s been some smoke and mirrors behind their results. Their defence has been quite vulnerable and could be the game Palace’s attack finally breaks through. I expect a very close and competitive game here, one that I predict will end 1-1. On the total side, I like the middle opportunity of BTTS and under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Burnley/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Chelsea vs West Ham

Venue: Stamford Bridge | Start: 02:00

Chelsea: A solid start has Chelsea sitting in 4th place, earning 26 points from their first 13 games. They were competitive against Man City last week, but were ultimately outclassed in a 2-1 defeat. They’ve managed 28 goals under Lampard’s free-flowing style, but conceding 19 is definitely cause for concern. Although Stamford Bridge is still a tough place to play, they’ve only won 3 of their first 6 there.

West Ham: A poor start to the campaign sees West Ham in 17th place with just 13 points. They struggled last week against Tottenham, ultimately falling 3-2 in a scoreline that flattered them. Their form has really tailed off of late, undoing the hard work they did to start the season. They’ve managed just 1 road league win this year, which could suggest another tough day at the office here.

Analysis: Especially after a loss last weekend, I don’t see any result besides a Chelsea win here. I think they’re the more talented of these two sides and should have no trouble scoring against a leaky West Ham defence. In what I expect to be a high-scoring game, I like 3-1 to the Blues here. This means that over 2.5 goals and BTTS look like very strong supplementary bets.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tottenham vs Bournemouth

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Start: 02:00

Tottenham: A dreadful season by their standards has Spurs in 10th place with 17 points so far. They picked up a much-needed win last time out, taking care of business 3-2 at West Ham. Things really went downhill near the end of Pochettino’s rein and there is definite optimism that Jose can right the ship. They’ve still been a solid home side thus far, managing 11 points from their first 6 games.

Bournemouth: The Cherries are just behind their opponents this week, sitting in 11th with 16 points. Their recent form hasn’t been particularly great, falling 2-1 at home to Wolves last time out. To compound matters, Simon Francis is out for 3 games after receiving a straight red during that defeat. They’ve been solid on the road this season, with 7 points in 6 games a solid early return.

Analysis: While he may not be a great long-term appointment, I think Mourinho will really help this team in the short-term. Spurs are easily the better side here, especially with Bournemouth’s poor recent run. I don’t expect it to be too fancy, but I see Spurs getting over the line here 2-1. Over 2.5 goals looks a good bet here, as does BTTS.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Southampton vs Watford

Venue: St Mary’s | Start: 04:30

Southampton: The Saints have started this season very poorly, sitting in 19th with just 9 points thus far. They had probably their best result of the season last time out, a 2-2 draw with Arsenal that they easily could’ve won. Their defence has been incredibly problematic, conceding the most goals in the league with 31. They have a measly 1 point from 6 home games so far, although a primetime game could help them turn this around.

Watford: Watford are the only sides worse than their opponents so far, sitting in last place with just 8 points. They had another poor result last time out, getting demolished 3-0 at home to Burnley. Their scoring has been a major problem this season, finding the net just 8 times so far. They’ve been slightly better on the road this season, with 5 points good for 16th in the form table.

Analysis: As poor as Southampton have been thus far, I think they’re the better of these two sides. They do get a great home field advantage and I expect their fans to be well up for this one. I see Saints getting over the line 2-0 here, a result that could really galvanize them going forward. As additional options, I see value in Southampton winning to nil and Southampton -1.

Head to Head: Southampton
Half-time/Full-time: Southampton/Southampton
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Monday, December 1

Norwich vs Arsenal

Venue: Carrow Road | Start: 01:00

Norwich: Norwich are in the midst of a rather poor campaign, managing just 10 points to sit in 18th place. They did manage a favourable result last time out, a 2-0 road win at a disappointing Everton side. Their issues have mainly been at the back this season, where they’ve already conceded 28 goals. They tend to be a better side at home, managing 2 wins out of 6 games so far.

Arsenal: Some poor recent results have Arsenal sitting in 8th place with 18 points thus far. They were very poor last time out, only managing a point at home to 19th place Southampton. They look a fairly poor side by the numbers, with a negative goal difference through the season’s first third. They’ve continued to be a poor road side, managing just 1 win from their first 6 away games.

Analysis: Norwich finally seem to be getting some key players back and we could begin to see an uptick in performances. Arsenal have been awful on the road of late and Emery could easily go if they don’t get a result here. I think this is a tough game to call, but I’ll ultimately go for an eventful 2-2 score draw. I see both sides getting on the scoresheet here, paired nicely with over 2.5 total goals.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Norwich/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Wolves vs Sheffield United

Venue: Molineux | Start: 01:00

Wolves: Wolves have definitely picked it up of late, moving into 5th place with 19 points thus far. They enjoyed another impressive result last time out, a solid 2-1 win away at Bournemouth. They’ve been competitive all season, with just 2 losses tied with Leicester for 2nd best. They could still serve to improve their home form, where they’ve managed a solid 9 points from 6 games.

Sheffield United: The Blades have been hugely impressive this season, occupying a top 6 spot with 18 points. They had a very eventful game with Man United last time out, one that ended in a 3-3 draw. Their defence had been very strong prior to that game, conceding just 9 goals from their first 12. They are impressively unbeaten on the road this season, admittedly drawing 5 out of 6 games.

Analysis: Both of these sides have been very impressive thus far and look like early contenders for a European spot. Wolves have struggled after European games this season and a midweek trip to Braga could prove problematic here. Given the propensity for draws these two sides have, I see another 1-1 firmly on the cards here. I like Sheffield United +1 at the handicap and see some value in BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Wolves/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Leicester vs Everton

Venue: King Power Stadium | Start: 03:30

Leicester: Leicester have been hugely impressive so far, sitting 2nd in the table with 29 early points. They managed another professional win last time out, 2-0 on the road against Brighton. Scoring over 30 goals shows their attacking quality, but conceding 8 thus far is more of a statement about how good they can be. The King Power remains a fortress, a place where they’ve dropped just 2 points thus far.

Everton: Everton have been woeful this season, languishing in 16th with just 14 points. They hit a new low last time out, a 2-0 home defeat to lowly Norwich City. They’ve really lacked a cutting edge in front of goal, averaging just a goal a game this season. Their road form continues to be very poor, managing just 4 points from 6 away games thus far.

Analysis: With how poor last week’s result was, I have to think we see a reaction from Everton. That said, with how talented and consistent this Leicester side is, I’m not sure it’ll be enough. I see a relatively close game here, with Leicester’s attack doing just enough to secure a 2-1 win. On the totals side, I think that over 2.5 and BTTS are both decent options.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Man United vs Aston Villa

Venue: Old Trafford | Start: 03:30

Man United: A middling season sees United in 9th place with 17 points from the early going. They rescued a point at Sheffield United last time out, a game they would’ve expected to win going in. The attack appears to have picked up of late, evidenced by 3 goals in quick succession last time out. They’re still a much better side at home, picking up 11 points from 6 games at Old Trafford.

Aston Villa: They haven’t been great in large parts, but Villa find themselves in 15th with 14 points so far. They got a much-needed win last time out, taking care of Newcastle 3-0. They’ve been relatively potent in front of goal so far, averaging nearly 1.5 a game with 19 goals total. Their road form is the worst in the Premier League so far, managing 5 defeats from their first 6 away games.

Analysis: With as terrible as they’ve been on the road thus far, I just don’t see a positive result for Aston Villa here. United are a markedly different team at home and I expect them to get the job done rather comfortably. I like the look of 2-0 United here, paired nicely with United to win to nil. Under 2.5 goals looks like a solid option early, as does ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Man United
Half-time/Full-time: Man Utd/Man Utd
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No