Premier League Betting – Week 16

Premier League Betting Preview

Don’t look now but we’re already at week 16 of the Premier League season. There are 10 exciting matches on the slate and our EPL betting tips cover all of them, with the Manchester derby being the pick of the bunch. Everton will look to break out of their funk against Chelsea to kick things off, while a desperate Arsenal travel to West Ham to close out the week. We’ll preview all 10 games here, identifying where the value lies in each.

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Saturday, December 7

Everton vs Chelsea

Venue: Goodison Park | Start: 23:30

Everton: The Toffees have been horrendous to start the season, sitting in the relegation zone with just 14 points. They had another awful performance last time out, falling 5-2 away at rivals Liverpool. This led to the sacking of manager Marco Silva and it’ll be interesting to see the impact this has going forward. They’ve been noticeably better at Goodison this season, picking up 10 points from 7 games so far.

Chelsea: Chelsea have had a relatively strong start to the campaign, sitting in 4th with 29 points. They had another strong result last time out, a 2-1 home win over Aston Villa. They’ve been fairly prolific going forward this season, averaging 2 goals a game for 30 in total. Their road form has also been very solid, picking up 15 points from their first 7 away games.

Betting Analysis: This has all the makings of a much better performance from Everton. They’ve got rid of their manager and are playing a home primetime game after a brutal defeat. While I expect it to be quite close, the talent edge for Chelsea should prove decisive in a 2-1 win. I like Chelsea to win by exactly 1 here and see some value in over 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sunday, December 8

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Venue: Vitality Stadium | Start: 02:00

Bournemouth: Bournemouth have really tailed off of late, now sitting in 14th with just 16 points. They suffered another defeat last time out, 1-0 away at Palace despite playing against 10 men for much of the game. This marks four straight defeats for the Cherries, who’ve looked rather vulnerable at the back. Their home form has been average at best, managing 9 points from their first 7 games.

Liverpool: Liverpool remain comfortably in first place, having dropped just 2 points all season. They had another routine win last time out, comfortably defeating rivals Everton at home. This was one of their better offensive outputs of the season, even with Salah and Mane starting on the bench. While not quite as good as at home, their road form has still been hugely impressive thus far.

Betting Analysis: Even after an emotional derby victory, I see no result besides a Liverpool win here. Bournemouth are in freefall right now and should struggle to contain the Liverpool front 3. I’d expect a relatively close game, one that the Reds ultimately win 2-1. Liverpool by exactly 1 is a solid bet here, as is BTTS.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tottenham vs Burnley

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium | Start: 02:00

Tottenham: Tottenham have been a middling side this season, now occupying 8th spot with 20 points. They suffered a very disappointing defeat last time out, falling 2-1 away at Man United. The defence has been a weak point all season, already allowing 23 total goals. Their home form is still much better, earning 14 points from their 7 games thus far.

Burnley: Burnley find themselves comfortably mid-table, sitting in 12th spot with 18 points so far. They were definitely humbled last time out, getting routed 4-1 by Man City at home. This continued their series of defensive problems, where they’ve conceded an uncharacteristic 24 goals so far. They still struggle somewhat away from Turf Moor, averaging less than a point per game.

Betting Analysis: Despite the loss last time out, I think Spurs have looked like a better team under Mourinho. They’ve got a strong talent edge here and have been playing well at home. I see a relatively comfortable Spurs win, keeping a clean sheet in a 2-0 rout. With this in mind, Spurs to win to nil and under 2.5 goals are solid additional bets.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Tottenham/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Watford vs Crystal Palace

Venue: Vicarage Road | Start: 02:00

Watford: Watford are in the midst of an atrocious season, sitting rock bottom with just 8 points. They had another poor result last time out, falling 2-0 away against a professional Leicester side. Their attacking problems have plagued them all year, managing just 9 total goals from 15 games. Vicarage Road has been anything but a fortress thus far, where they remain winless with just 3 total points.

Crystal Palace: Despite being unspectacular thus far, Palace have moved up to 7th place with 21 total points. They had another strong result last time out, picking up a 1-0 home win over Bournemouth. Their attack hasn’t been great either, managing some solid results despite scoring just 14 times. They’re relatively strong on the road, managing 10 points from their first 7 away games.

Betting Analysis: Although they’ve got a solid record, I think Palace’s underlying numbers mean they’re overrated in the current market. Watford aren’t as bad as their points tally would suggest and I expect them to be competitive here. This has the makings of a relatively tight affair, one that I’d predict to end in a 1-1 draw. I like Watford +1 here as well as BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Watford/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Man City vs Man United

Venue: Etihad Stadium | Start: 04:30

Man City: City have been good but not great this season, now sitting in 3rd place with 32 total points. They got back on track last time out, earning a comfortable 4-1 win away at Burnley. They’ve still been killing it from an attacking standpoint, scoring 43 goals which is comfortably the best in the league. The Etihad is still a tough place to play and they’ve picked up 16 points from 7 there so far.

Man United: It hasn’t been a great season for United, yet they now sit in the top 6 with 21 total points. They had a galvanizing win last time out, beating Tottenham 2-1 at home. Striker Marcus Rashford appears to have found form, scoring twice and creating a few more close chances. They’ve been pitiful away from home this season, earning just 6 points from their 7 road games.

Betting Analysis: Even after a win last time out, I don’t see how United match up well with City here. I can see the City midfield running rings around them here, with the in-form Jesus potentially scoring again. 3-1 seems like a fairly likely scoreline, replicating what happened at the Etihad last season. With this in mind, I like City -1 and over 2.5 goals as supplemental bets.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, December 9

Aston Villa vs Leicester

Venue: Villa Park | Start: 01:00

Aston Villa: Aston Villa are dangerously close to the relegation zone, sitting in 16th with just 15 points. They fought hard last time out, ultimately losing 2-1 in a relatively close one with Chelsea. This team has relatively strong attacking ability, with 22 goals scored the most of any team currently in the bottom half. They tend to perform much better at home, returning 11 points from 7 home games so far.

Leicester City: The Foxes have been hugely impressive thus far, occupying 2nd place with 35 total points. They had another professional win last time out, 2-0 over bottom place Watford. The defence continues to be absolutely rock solid, conceding just 9 goals this season. They’ve performed quite well away from home, earning 13 points in 7 games away from King Power.

Betting Analysis: As good as Leicester have been of late, I’m not sure how sustainable their performances are. The numbers suggest they’re somewhat overrated and Villa are a fairly competent home side. I’m expecting a close and hard-fought battle here, one that ends 1-1. I like Villa +1 here and can also see some value in under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Newcastle vs Southampton

Venue: St James’ Park | Start: 01:00

Newcastle: Their stats aren’t great, but Newcastle have picked up the results to sit 11th with 19 points. They got another impressive result last time out, picking up the upset win away at Sheffield United. They’re averaging just 1 goal a game with a -7 goal difference, although they know how to finish close games. St James’ Park is still a tough place to play and they’ve picked up 10 points from their first 7 games there.

Southampton: The Saints appear to be in much better shape, with consecutive wins taking them out of the relegation zone. They were good value last time out, taking care of business 2-1 against Norwich. Danny Ings has been impressive of late, scoring in 4 straight games and being the catalyst up front. Their away form isn’t half bad either, earning 8 points from 7 road tilts.

Betting Analysis: This is another game that is very tough to call. Both sides are playing some solid football right now and there is very little between them. I think a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome here, with 0-0 and 1-1 definitely the most likely. I don’t anticipate a ton of attacking chances, meaning under 2.5 is also solid value.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Newcastle/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Norwich City vs Sheffield United

Venue: Carrow Road | Start: 01:00

Norwich City: Norwich have really struggled this season, sitting in 19th place with just 11 points. They lost a 6-pointer last time out, falling 2-1 away at Southampton. The defence has been vulnerable all season, with 32 goals conceded the second most in the league. They’ve looked slightly better at home so far, although they’re still only managing a point a game there.

Sheffield United: The Blades have been solid yet unspectacular thus far, now sitting in 9th place. They really missed an opportunity last time out, falling at home to Newcastle. The defence has regressed rather noticeably of late, although they still possess a positive goal difference. They’re still yet to lose a road game this season, earning 6 draws from 7 games.

Betting Analysis: While Sheffield United have been good so far, I expect them to fall back down to earth a bit soon. Norwich should come out rather desperate for this one, needing a win to keep pace here. I think they’ve got a shot at winning here, but the Sheffield United away draw stat is too strong to avoid. I’ll ultimately predict another 1-1 draw, with Norwich +1 and BTTS also looking like solid options.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Brighton vs Wolves

Venue: Amex Stadium | Start: 03:30

Brighton: Brighton have had a middling start to the campaign, now sitting in 13th place with 18 points. They had a huge result last time out, defeating Arsenal 2-1 on the road. This was certainly a well-deserved win as they had more possession, shots, and shots on target. They’ve been quite strong at home as well, earning 11 points from their first 7 games.

Wolves: Wolves are in the midst of a fairly strong season, occupying 5th place with 23 points. They picked up another 3 points last time out, taking care of West Ham 2-0 at home. They’re doing all of this in spite of playing in Europe, losing just 2 games all season. Their road form is also very stellar, picking up 10 points and just 1 defeat from their first 7 away games.

Betting Analysis: After such a huge win away at Arsenal, Brighton could be primed for a letdown spot here. Wolves have been very efficient of late and I think they’ve got the talent up front to score a couple in this one. I think the road side does just enough to secure all 3 points here, with a final score of 2-1. On the total side, I like the look of BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Wolves
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Wolves
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tuesday, December 10

West Ham vs Arsenal

Venue: London Stadium | Start: 07:00

West Ham: West Ham have noticeably regressed of late, moving to 15th place with 16 total points. They suffered another disappointing defeat last time out, falling 2-0 away at Wolves. The defence has really been called into question, already conceding 25 goals this season. Their home form has also been quite poor, managing just 7 points from 7 so sit 17th in the form table.

Arsenal: The Gunners have been atrocious recently, now firmly mid-table in 10th with 19 points. They hit a new low last time out, falling 2-1 at home to Brighton. This makes it 7 straight league games without a win, a devastating blow for a side with pre-season top 4 hopes. They’re an even worse side on the road, securing just 6 points from 7 away games thus far.

Betting Analysis: While you could argue Arsenal are undervalued right now, it’s very tough to back them with how they’re playing. West Ham are better than their results would suggest and I expect them to perform here in primetime. This has all the makings of an entertaining score draw, with 1-1 again looking like a likely scoreline. I’d combine this with the solid middle opportunity of under 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes