Premier League Betting – Week 17

English Premier League Betting Preview

The Premier League returns this weekend for another exciting slate of 10 fixtures. Our free EPL tips cover every match. The headliner takes place at the Emirates on Monday morning, with Arsenal playing host to City. United host Everton and Tottenham travel to Wolves in two other intriguing fixtures. We’ll preview all 10 games this weekend and identify where the value lies.

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Saturday, December 14

Liverpool vs Watford

Venue: Anfield | Start: 23:30

Liverpool: Liverpool have had a very solid start to the season, sitting comfortably atop the table with 46 points. They had another impressive result last time out, a 3-0 away win at Bournemouth. Their attack has really picked up of late, with 40 goals scored good for 2nd in the division. Anfield continues to be a major fortress and they’re yet to drop a game there this season.

Watford: Watford find themselves rooted to the bottom of the table, managing just 9 points from 16 games. They had a somewhat better result last time out, although they still couldn’t get over the line in a goalless draw. The attack continues to be an unmitigated disaster, netting just 9 times all season. Their road form is nothing special either, managing only 5 points thus far.

Analysis: This is arguably the biggest mismatch in the Premier League this season. Liverpool have a huge talent edge over Watford and should win this relatively comfortably. I like a professional 3-0 Liverpool win here, with Liverpool winning to nil looking like good value. On the total side, over 2.5 goals seems fairly likely, but I don’t see both sides scoring.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Sunday, December 15

Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Venue: Stamford Bridge | Start: 02:00

Chelsea: Chelsea have had a relatively strong campaign, sitting 4th with 29 points thus far. They had a definite missed opportunity last time out, falling 3-1 away at strugglers Everton. Their defence continues to leak goals at an alarming rate, conceding 24 already. Stamford Bridge remains a tough place to play, where they’ve secured 14 points from 8 games.

Bournemouth: The Cherries have been rather poor this season, now in 15th with just 16 points. They suffered another defeat last time out, falling 3-0 at home to Liverpool. They’ve been on an absolutely atrocious run of late and will need to turn things around to avoid falling into a relegation battle. Their away form is nothing special, managing 7 points from 8 trips thus far.

Analysis: This is another game where the home side just has a huge talent edge. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what’s wrong with Bournemouth, but I’m not sure it gets fixed here. Expect another relatively comfortable home win for Chelsea, one that they ultimately secure 3-1. This means that over 2.5 goals is well in play, as is BTTS.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sheffield United vs Aston Villa

Venue: Bramall Lane | Start: 02:00

Sheffield United: The Blades have been a pleasant story this season, occupying 8th position with 22 points. They got another solid result last time out, securing a 2-1 away win at Norwich. Their defence remains their main success point, conceding just a goal a game thus far. Their home form could stand to improve, with 10 points from 8 games good for only 15th in the form table.

Aston Villa: Villa are just above the relegation zone in 17th spot, only ahead of Southampton on goal difference. They were humbled at home last time out, falling 4-1 to the high-flying Leicester. They’re relatively strong going forward, but their defence needs to improve to avoid a relegation fight. They’ve also struggled mightily on the road thus far, earning only 4 points from 8 games.

Analysis: Sheffield United are now entering rare territory where they’re definitely expected to win this game. Villa have been atrocious on the road thus far and I think Sheffield outwork them in a professional 2-1 win. Sheffield United by 1 goal is my best bet here, but I also see some value in over 2.5 at plus money.

Head to Head: Sheffield United
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Sheffield United
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Leicester vs Norwich

Venue: King Power | Start: 02:00

Leicester: Leicester have been outstanding this season, occupying 2nd place with 38 points thus far. They kept the train rolling last time out, securing a 4-1 win away at Villa. They now possess the best goal difference in the league, conceding only 10 goals this season. The King Power is a very strong home field and they’ve secured 22 points from 8 games there thus far.

Norwich: Norwich look to be in real trouble, languishing in 19th with just 11 points. They again fell short last time out, dropping a home game to Sheffield United 2-1. Their defence just can’t stop leaking goals, conceding 34 already this season. With only 4 points from 8 road games, this one is likely to be an uphill battle.

Analysis: This is yet another clash with a huge talent mismatch. Although they’ve battled some injuries, I don’t think this Norwich team is cut out for EPL football. Expect another professional home win for Leicester, one that I’m predicting will end 2-0. I like Leicester to win to nil here as well as ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Burnley vs Newcastle

Venue: Turf Moor | Start: 02:00

Burnley: Burnley have been fairly inconsistent in 2019, occupying 13th spot with 18 points. They were absolutely belted last time out, falling 5-0 away at Tottenham. A lot of their woes appear to be on the defensive end, already conceding 29 goals. Turf Moor is still a tough place to play and they’ve earned 12 points from 8 home games.

Newcastle: Newcastle have definitely surpassed expectations, sitting 11th with 22 points. They had another favourable result last time out, defeating Southampton 2-1 at home. The attack has picked up in recent weeks, with the side now averaging over a goal a game. They’ve shown they can earn the upset away from home, already winning 3 road games this season.

Analysis: This has the makings of a very tight game, but I like the ‘buy low’ spot on Burnley here. Turf Moor is still a strong home field and I think their attackers will enjoy some success. 2-1 Burnley would be my prediction here, with Burnley by exactly 1 goal a solid alternative.

Head to Head: Burnley
Half-time/Full-time: Burnley/Burnley
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Southampton vs West Ham

Venue: St Mary’s | Start: 04:30

Southampton: The Saints remain in the relegation zone, sitting in 18th on goal difference. They missed an opportunity last time out, falling 2-1 away at Newcastle. They’ve conceded the most goals in the league at 35, a stat that simply has to improve going forward. They’ve managed only 7 points from 8 home games thus far, although 6 of those came in the last 2.

West Ham: West Ham could soon be entering a relegation battle, sitting 16th with 16 total points. They led 1-0 against Arsenal last week, before a mini meltdown saw them concede 3 in quick succession. Pellegrini’s job security has been in question and a loss here could prove critical. They’re a slightly better road side than home side this season, securing 9 points from 8 games.

Analysis: Both of these sides have some talented players and solid managers, but have struggled to piece it altogether. Not much separates these two teams and I’m predicting a draw here, with 1-1 being the most likely scoreline. On the total side, I like the middle opportunity of under 2.5 goals combined with BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: Yes

Monday, December 16

Man Utd vs Everton

Venue: Old Trafford | Start: 01:00

Man United: United have been much improved of late, now occupying 5th spot with 24 points. They got a crucial win over their local rivals last week, beating City 2-1 at the Etihad. Marcus Rashford continued his strong form up front, netting the opener to set the tone. They’ve lost only 1 home game all season, managing 15 points from 8 games thus far.

Everton: This season has been a battle for Everton and they now sit 14th with 17 points. They got a crucial win last time out, taking care of Chelsea 3-1 at Goodison. Duncan Ferguson appears to have given the side a lift, which should improve results going forward. Their road form is joint-worst in the division, managing just 4 points from 8 away games.

Analysis: While they got a big win last week, the challenge for United is to follow that up by getting the 3 points in a game they should win. Considering Everton’s woeful road form, I think they’re up for that challenge here in a 2-1 home win. I like United to win by 1 goal here, which pairs nicely with over 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Man United
Half-time/Full-time: Man United/Man United
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Wolves vs Tottenham

Venue: Molineux | Start: 01:00

Wolves: Wolves are in the midst of another decent season, sitting 6th with 24 points. They earned another decent point last week, a 2-2 draw away at Brighton. They remain a very difficult side to beat, losing only twice in their 16 games. They’ve been good but not great at Molineux, securing 13 points from their 8 home games.

Tottenham: Spurs have been a middling side thus far, sitting in 7th spot with 23 points. They had a hugely impressive result last time out, a 5-0 home demolition of Burnley. The attack has been really looking up of late, now scoring 30 goals on the year. Their road form could definitely stand to improve, having secured only 6 away points this season.

Analysis: Wolves have been very tough to beat this year, while Tottenham look much better under Mourinho. I expect a fairly competitive game here and will ultimately predict a tense 1-1 draw. Both teams should get on the scoresheet here and the middle with under 2.5 goals is also in play.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Arsenal vs Man City

Venue: Emirates | Start: 03:30

Arsenal: It has been an eventful season for Arsenal, who currently sit 9th with 22 points. They managed a 3-1 comeback at West Ham last week, which could prove galvanizing going forward. They’ve got some solid performers up front, but 1.5 goals concede per game certainly needs to improve. They do play noticeably better at home, where they’ve lost just once and got 13 points from 8 games.

Man City: Despite a relatively disappointing season, City remain 3rd with 32 total points. They had a very poor result last time out, falling to rivals United by a 2-1 scoreline. While they are the league’s highest scorers, defensive frailties have plagued them since Laporte’s injury. They’ve secured 16 points from 8 away games this year, good for 3rd in the form table.

Analysis: Neither side is in particularly great form, but City possess the talent and coaching advantage here. I think they’ll create plenty of attacking opportunities here, doing enough defensively to earn a 2-1 win. City by exactly 1 goal looks good value, while over 2.5 and BTTS are solid on the total side.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tuesday, December 17

Crystal Palace vs Brighton

Venue: Selhurst Park | Start: 06:45

Crystal Palace: Palace have been firmly mid-table this season, sitting 10th with 22 points. They played cellar dwellers Watford last week, but couldn’t manage anything more than a point. Their attack continues to remain a major problem as they’ve only managed 14 goals thus far. They’re a similar outfit both home and away, securing 11 points from 8 games in both categories.

Brighton: Brighton have been solid yet unspectacular, now in 12th with 19 points. They had another decent result last time out, a 2-2 home draw with Wolves. New manager Graham Potter has noticeably improved the attack, making them much more dangerous going forward. They’re not necessarily a great road side, securing 7 points from 8 games this season.

Analysis: This is a fierce rivalry with no love lost on either sides. Despite picking up some solid early results, I think Palace have been fairly lucky so far. Brighton are a decent side and I’d expect a hard-fought battle here. I’ll settle on predicting a 1-1 draw, with Brighton +1 and under 2.5 goals looming as my best bets.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes