Premier League Betting – Week 23

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English Premier League Betting Preview

The Premier League returns this weekend with another exciting slate of 10 fixtures. A resurgent Watford get us underway on Saturday night, playing host to a struggling Spurs side. We finish the weekend with the match of the round as Liverpool play host to Man United. We’ll preview each of the 10 games on the slate, providing our best bets in the process.

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Saturday, January 18

Watford vs Tottenham

Venue: Vicarage Road | Start: 23:30

Watford: A recent purple patch has Watford just outside the drop zone, sitting in 17th on 22 points. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 league games, including a 3-0 thrashing of Bournemouth last week. Their attack has really picked up of late, scoring 8 goals in their last 3 games. Their home form is good but not great and they’ve picked up 13 points from 11 games so far.

Tottenham: A poor recent run has moved Spurs down to 8th place with 30 total points. They haven’t won in their last 3 league games, including dropping points at Norwich and Southampton. The defence just hasn’t been stout under Mourinho, giving up 31 goals already. They are averaging less than a point a game on the road this season, securing 10 points from 11 games.

Betting Analysis: Watford have been in great form of late and should be motivated as part of the relegation battle. Spurs may not be as motivated in this one, with the top 4 looking more unlikely by the day. I think we ultimately see a relatively even clash, one that ends as a draw. 1-1 seems to be the most likely scoreline, meaning Watford should also cover the +1 handicap.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Sunday, January 19

Man City vs Crystal Palace

Venue: Etihad | Start: 02:00

Man City: City have been in some strong form lately, moving up to 2nd place with 47 total points. They put 6 past Aston Villa last time out, making it 4 wins in their last 5. Their attack continues to be lethal, leading the league with 62 goals scored. Their home form is also good for second in the league, with 25 points from 11 games.

Crystal Palace: A good season for Palace currently has them in 9th place on 29 points. Form has dipped a bit lately, with only 1 win in their last 5 contests. Their goal scoring does need to pick up, currently tied for bottom with just 20 on the season. They’ve been decent as a road side, securing 13 points from their first 11 games.

Betting Analysis: With the way City are playing, it’d be tough to see them lose this one. Palace are struggling up front and I can see the Blues keeping a clean sheet here. 3-0 is my projected scoreline, meaning we go over 2.5 total goals but ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Man City
Half-time/Full-time: Man City/Man City
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Arsenal vs Sheffield United

Venue: Emirates | Start: 02:00

Arsenal: Another poor season by Arsenal has them firmly mid table in 10th with 28 points. They dropped points again last time out, held to a 1-1 draw away at Palace. A negative goal difference is very underwhelming, particularly on the defensive end. They still tend to play better at home, securing 16 points from their first 11.

Sheffield United: The Blades find themselves above their opponents here, in the top 6 with 32 points. They got back on track last time out, beating West Ham 1-0 at home. Their defence is the foundation for their success, currently joint 2nd in the fewest goals conceded. They’ve also held their own on the road this year, losing just twice in 11 games.

Betting Analysis: This should be one of the more entertaining matchups this weekend. I think we’ll see an interesting battle of styles, one that remains competitive throughout. A draw at $3.50 appears good initial value, with 1-1 being my projected final scoreline.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Sheffield United/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Brighton vs Aston Villa

Venue: Amex | Start: 02:00

Brighton: Brighton have been decent thus far, sitting in 14th with 24 total points. Their form has dipped somewhat of late, only winning once in their last 5. They let an opportunity slip last time out, falling 1-0 away at Everton. Their home form has been a strong point this season, sitting 10th in the form table with 16 points.

Aston Villa: It hasn’t been an easy season for Villa and they now sit in the relegation zone with 21 points. They had a brutal defeat last time out, falling 6-1 at home to Man City. This marked their 43rd goal conceded this season, good for 2nd worst in the league. They’ve struggled mightily on the road, losing 8 times and picking up just 7 points.

Betting Analysis: This is the type of game Brighton just need to win to distance themselves from the relegation battle. I think they’re the more talented team and that they can really get after a leaky Villa defence. 2-1 Brighton is my final projected scoreline, meaning that over 2.5 and BTTS are both also in play.

Head to Head: Brighton
Half-time/Full-time: Brighton/Brighton
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Norwich vs Bournemouth

Venue: Carrow Road | Start: 02:00

Norwich: Norwich are currently rooted to the bottom of the table with just 14 points. They had another poor result last time out, getting thrashed away at Man Utd. They’ve given up the most goals in the league this season, a whopping 45 already. They perform slightly better at home, but they’ve still only gained 9 points thus far.

Bournemouth: A very poor run has seen Bournemouth fall into 19th place on 20 points. They can’t seem to buy a win, having lost 4 of their last 5 contests. Their lack of goal scoring seems to be a major problem, having managed just 20 thus far. Their road form is actually good for 13th in the league, getting 10 points from 11 games.

Betting Analysis: In what is very much a 6-pointer, I’d expect both sides to go out all guns blazing here. Ultimately, I think we’ll end up with a draw, which doesn’t help either side dramatically. 1-1 is my projected scoreline, so Bournemouth +1 and under 2.5 are logical complementary bets.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Southampton vs Wolves

Venue: St Mary’s | Start: 02:00

Southampton: The Saints have enjoyed a real purple patch of late, moving up to 12th with 28 points. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 contests, putting their early-season struggles behind them. This culminated in a 2-1 win away at Leicester last time out, getting revenge for their 9-0 defeat. Their home form has been surprisingly poor, where they’ve managed just 11 points compared to 17 on the road.

Wolves: Wolves are in and around the top 6, currently in 7th with 31 points. They’ve stumbled a little bit of late, managing just 1 point from their last 3 games. They played an FA Cup replay midweek against Man Utd, which could alter preparations here. Their road form remains solid, picking up 14 points from 11 thus far.

Betting Analysis: This should be another close game that ultimately gets decided late. Southampton aren’t a great home side, but their overall form is definitely on the incline. Wolves are the slightly more talented side, a mix that likely ends in another draw, with 1-1 being my final prediction.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Wolves/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

West Ham vs Everton

Venue: London Stadium | Start: 02:00

West Ham: A somewhat poor season from the Hammers has them in 16th place with 22 points. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 contests, including a 1-0 defeat at Sheffield United last time out. They do have a game in hand and also possess enough talent up front to avoid relegation. Their home form hasn’t been great all year, sitting on 10 points from 10 games.

Everton: A decent run of form from Everton has moved them up to 11th with 28 points. They beat Brighton 1-0 last week and have begun to look much more solid at the back. Their road form has been fairly poor, securing just 8 points from their first 11 games.

Betting Analysis: West Ham really need a win here and I’d expect a very motivated performance. Their home form isn’t great, but Everton’s road form is even worse. I’m going for a narrow Hammers win here, a 2-1 that helps over 2.5 and BTTS both cash.

Head to Head: West Ham
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/West Ham
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Newcastle vs Chelsea

Venue: St James’ Park | Start: 04:30

Newcastle: An average season from Newcastle has them in 13th on 26 points. They secured a 1-1 draw against Wolves last week, which ended a run of 3 straight defeats. Their -13-goal difference is hardly inspiring, nor is their average of under a goal a game. They’re a noticeably better home side, securing 16 points from 11 games so far.

Chelsea: Chelsea are enjoying a solid but unspectacular season, comfortably in 4th with 39 points. They had another positive result last time out, a 3-0 win at home to Burnley. Their attack continues to form a great foundation, scoring 39 goals on the season. Their road form has also been very good, averaging 2 points a game with 22 so far.

Betting Analysis: Chelsea match up well with Newcastle and I’d expect a relatively routine win here. Their young attackers should get on the scoresheet, while they also contain a somewhat anaemic Newcastle attack. 2-0 Chelsea here, with Chelsea to nil also a solid betting option.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No

Monday, January 20

Burnley vs Leicester

Venue: Turf Moor | Start: 01:00

Burnley: It hasn’t been a great season for Burnley, yet they still sit 15th with 24 total points. They’ve lost their last four games, including a thumping at Chelsea last weekend. Their defence has really regressed this season, with 37 goals conceded the catalyst for a -13-goal difference. They’ve been better at home, winning 5 of 11 games at Turf Moor so far.

Leicester: Leicester have exceeded expectations all season, sitting in 3rd with 45 total points. They were previously in 2nd for a while, but a loss to Southampton last time out dropped them down a peg. They’ve been great on both ends, with a GD of +26 comfortably the 3rd best in the league. They’re just as good on the road, securing 22 points from 11 games thus far.

Betting Analysis: This has the makings of a competitive game, but I don’t see Burnley breaking out of their slump here. Leicester are the better of these two sides and I see them scoring against a vulnerable Burnley defence. I’ll predict 2-1 to the Foxes here, with over 2.5 and BTTS as solid supplemental bets.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes

Liverpool vs Man United

Venue: Anfield | Start: 03:30

Liverpool: Liverpool have continued their dominant season, sitting 1st with 61 points. They’ve been on a winning streak since their earlier draw with United, culminating in a win over Spurs last week. Their defence remains a huge reason for their success, having conceded just 14 times thus far. Their home record is flawless, meaning this should be a tough challenge for United.

Man United: Despite a ton of criticism, United find themselves in 5th with 34 points. They had another favourable result last week, beating Norwich 4-0. They remain a very inconsistent side, but they still have an outside shot at the top 4. They’ve had their struggles on the road this season, managing just 12 points from 11 games.

Betting Analysis: It’s hard to see anything other than a Liverpool victory on the cards here. United probably won’t get on the score sheet and we’ve already seen how leaky their defence can be. I’ll ultimately go 2-0 to Liverpool here, with Liverpool winning to nil looking like fairly good value.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: No