UEFA Champions League Betting Preview

After a long lay-off, the Champions League knockout stage is finally here. We’ve got some tantalising ties to be played, headlined by Real Madrid taking on English champions Man City. Atletico vs Liverpool and Chelsea vs Bayern also look like real standouts. We’ll go through all 8 of these games, identifying where the betting value lies.

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Champions League Tips – Wednesday, February 19 2020

Atlético v Liverpool

Venue: Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid | Start: 7:00 AM

Atletico Madrid: Atletico had a middling group stage, coming in 2nd place with 10 points. They scored just 8 goals through 6 games, managing 3 wins in the process. Their league form has been good but not great this season, currently in 4th with 39 points.

Liverpool: Liverpool had a solid group stage, picking up 13 points and 1st place. They won 4 out of their 6 games, scoring 13 against 8 goals conceded. They’ll be looking to emulate their league form here, where they’ve been nearly perfect.

Analysis: Atletico is still a very strong home side and I’d expect them to put up a fight here. I think a draw is a fairly likely result, with either 1-1 or 0-0 the most likely outcomes. I’d look at under 2.5 goals here, paired with Atletico at the +1 handicap.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Dortmund v Paris

Venue: BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund | Start: 7:00 AM

Dortmund: Dortmund narrowly made it through to the second round, earning 2nd place in group F. They won 3 and drew one of their 6 games, earning 10 points with a neutral goal difference. They currently sit 3rd in the Bundesliga with 39 points from 21 games.

PSG: PSG were excellent in the group stage, comfortably topping group A. They picked up 16 points from 6 games, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 2. They’ve also been lethal domestically, currently sitting 12 points clear in Ligue 1.

Analysis: I expect another tight game here that could really go either way. PSG are the more talented side, but they aren’t used to this level of competition and Dortmund tend to play very well at home. I can see another draw here, so I’ll go 1-1 with BTTS.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Dortmund/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: Yes

Champions League Tips – Thursday, February 20 2020

Atalanta v Valencia

Venue: Stadio San Siro, Milan | Start: 7:00 AM

Atalanta: Despite a relatively poor group stage, Atalanta somehow made it to the second round. They picked up just 7 points from their 6 games, also sporting a -4 goal difference. They’ve been quite good domestically, currently occupying a top 4 spot in Serie A.

Valencia: Valencia faced a relatively tough group and surprised a lot of people by coming first. They picked up 11 total points, scoring 9 goals and conceding 7 in total. They currently sit 7th in La Liga, although they’re only 2 points behind Atletico in 4th.

Analysis: Although their UCL form isn’t great, I’ll actually back Atalanta to get the job done here. They’ve been very good domestically this season and Valencia haven’t been great travellers. I’m predicting a 1-goal lead to take into the 2nd leg, with either a 1-0 or 2-1 final scoreline.

Head to Head: Atalanta
Half-time/Full-time: Atalanta/Atalanta
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes

Tottenham v Leipzig

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London | Start: 7:00 AM

Tottenham: Spurs had an indifferent group stage campaign, ultimately coming in 2nd place with 10 points. They were soundly beaten by Bayern twice, although they did manage to score 18 goals in 6 games. They’re back into the top 6 in the Premier League, currently in 6th with 37 total points.

RB Leipzig: Although they had a relatively easy group, RB Leipzig impressed greatly to take first place. They lost just once in the group stage, picking up 11 points and scoring 10 goals. They’ve also shown their talent in the Bundesliga, sitting in 2nd with 42 points.

Analysis: This has all the makings of another very intriguing and competitive game. While Leipzig may have the talent edge, I think the experience of Mourinho and Spurs could do the job here. I like a narrow 1-goal win, likely either 1-0 or 2-1, which they’ll try to protect in the 2nd leg.

Head to Head: Tottenham
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Tottenham
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No

Champions League Tips – Wednesday, February 26 2020

Chelsea v Bayern

Venue: Stamford Bridge, London | Start: 7:00 AM

Chelsea: Chelsea navigated an interesting group H, coming second with 11 points. They’ll need to tighten things up at the back, after allowing 9 goals in their 6 group stage games. Their league form has dropped off a little of late, still occupying 4th spot with 41 total points.

Bayern: Bayern were spectacular throughout the group stage, the only side to win all 6 of their matches. They did this in dominating fashion, scoring 24 goals and conceding just 5. They also sit atop the Bundesliga, earning 43 points from their first 21 games.

Analysis: Bayern have looked good all season, while Chelsea appear to be hitting a downturn in form. I don’t like Chelsea’s chances in this one, and can see Bayern taking control of the tie here. I’ll predict a 2-1 away win, which goes nicely with over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Head to Head: Bayern
Half-time/Full-time: Bayern/Bayern
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes

Napoli v Barcelona

Venue: Stadio San Paolo, Naples | Start: 07:00

Napoli: Napoli also had a strong group stage, ultimately having to settle for 2nd place. They went undefeated through 6 games, winning 3 and drawing 3 with a +7 goal difference. Their league form has been ordinary to say the least, now siting 11th with just 30 points.

Barcelona: Barca were professional as ever during the group stage, earning first place with 14 points. They won 4 games and drew 2 in a tough group, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 4. They currently sit 2nd in La Liga, 3 points behind Real Madrid after 23 games played.

Analysis: Given Napoli’s recent form, I just don’t see them emerging victorious here. Barcelona are one of the better sides left in the tournament and I expect a professional road performance. I’ll go for a 1-goal win for Barca, very likely either 1-0 or 2-1.

Head to Head: Barcelona
Half-time/Full-time: Barcelona/Barcelona
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No

Champions League Tips – Thursday, February 27 2020

Lyon v Juventus

Venue: OL Stadium, Decines | Start: 7:00 AM

Lyon: Lyon are another surprise packet, earning 2nd place in the relatively weak Group G. They won 2, drew 2, and lost 2 in the group stage, earning a goal difference of +1. This hasn’t translated in the league, where they sit 9th with 33 points from 24 games.

Juventus: Juve had a very strong start to the tournament, winning a group that also featured Atletico. They secured 16 points from 6 games, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 4. They now sit 2nd in Serie A, only behind Inter Milan on goal difference.

Analysis: In one of the bigger mismatches of the round, I see a relatively comfortable win for Juve here. I don’t see it being a high-scoring game, but 1 or 2-0 does seem likely. I’ll go under 2.5 goals here, as well as ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

Head to Head: Juventus
Half-time/Full-time: Juventus/Juventus
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No

Real Madrid vs Man City

Venue: Santiago Bernabeu | Start: 07:00

Real Madrid: Real Madrid salvaged a poor start to the campaign, finishing 2nd in the group with 11 points. After a bad opening day loss to PSG, they closed the group stages with 5 very solid performances. This has translated to their league form, where they sit atop La Liga with 52 points thus far.

Man City: City comfortably dominated Group C, finishing undefeated with 14 points. They had 4 wins and 2 inconsequential draws, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 4. Their league form has been adequate, sitting 2nd with 51 points from 25 games.

Analysis: This looks like the match of the round, with very little between these two sides. I expect this one to go down to the last minute, ultimately resulting in a 1-1 draw. BTTS looks to be good value, middled nicely with under 2.5 goals.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: Yes