AFL Betting Tips

What a nightmare! Round 3 of the AFL season produced upset after upset, leaving punters confused and bookies pleased.

The good news is that there is plenty of value to be had in Round 4, with a host of teams struggling for consistency.

Read on for our full betting preview!

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AFL Tipping – Thursday June 25

Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs

Venue: SCG | Start: 7:40 PM

Sydney Swans – The Swans in 2020 are very hard to read but look a competitive outfit. Away wins at Adelaide and North Melbourne have been impressive, with the Round 3 success against the Kangaroos at the Docklands coming just a week after Rhyce Shaw’s men stunned Greater Western Sydney. Oliver Florent has stepped up another level in 2020 and a forward line missing the likes of Lance Franklin and Sam Reid is still finding a way to kick winning scores, with Tom Papley and Lewis Taylor looking dangerous. The Swans have a poor record against the Bulldogs and have won just six of their last 17 at the SCG – not a great statistic for John Longmire’s men.

Western Bulldogs – After very disappointing showings against Collingwood and St Kilda, the Bulldogs bounced back in Round 3 against Greater Western Sydney. Was it just a once-off? This match may tell us. It was pleasing to see the Bulldogs play with more desperation against the Giants and Tom Liberatore adds another dimension to their midfield. Josh Dunkley is sidelined with an ankle injury but the Bulldogs look just a little too good in this one. Don’t expect a big margin but the visitors should do enough.

Head to Head: Western Bulldogs | $2 – Sportsbet
Win Margin: Western Bulldogs 1-39 | $2.35 – Unibet
Line: Western Bulldogs -2.5 | $1.91 – Bet365
Total Points: Under +125.5 | $1.88 – Sportsbet

AFL Tipping – Friday June 26

GWS v Collingwood

Venue: Giants Stadium | Start: 7:50 PM

Greater Western Sydney Giants – Successive losses to North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs have been bitterly disappointing for Giants fans. As a result, fans are left scratching their heads – what do we make of GWS? Last season’s run to the Grand Final was meant to herald the start of an era of Giants dominance but defeat here would begin to make life difficult for Leon Cameron’s men in 2020. They have the talent to win this and Toby Greene (knee soreness) and Josh Kelly, a late withdrawal from calf tightness, will return. Lachie Whitfield (concussion) should be fit, too, and the hosts need a big game from Jeremy Cameron, who has kicked 35 career goals in nine matches against the Magpies.

Collingwood Magpies – One of just three undefeated sides in the competition, Collingwood’s first half against the Saints last week was top class. The return of Jaidyn Stephenson gave them another dimension in attack and ex-Giant Adam Treloar (calf) may return from injury here. Having Treloar back would be a huge boost for the Pies, who also could consider recalling Mason Cox in place of Darcy Cameron. Steele Sidebottom and Scott Pendlebury are in great form in the midfield, while Jeremy Howe is playing well across half-back. The Magpies are the form side and might just pinch this in a thriller.

Head to Head: Collingwood | $1.75 – Bet365
Win Margin: Collingwood 1-39 | $2.10 – Unibet
Line: Collingwood -3.5 | $1.91 – Bet365
Total Points: Over +122.5 | $1.88 – Sportsbet

AFL Tipping – Saturday June 27

Port Adelaide v West Coast

Venue: Metricon Stadium | Start: 1:45 PM

Port Adelaide Power – Three wins on the trot has the Power on top of the ladder – a superb start to a make-or-break season for coach Ken Hinkley. Travis Boak has led the way for the Power and has amassed 28 of a possible 30 votes to lead the AFL Coaches Association’s player of the year award. This shapes as Port’s biggest test, though, having beaten Gold Coast, Adelaide and Fremantle so far. Port won the last meeting between the two sides by seven goals and that was in Perth, too. Youngster Xavier Duursma (hamstring) joins Ryan Burton (knee) on the sidelines.

West Coast Eagles – The Eagles went missing when it mattered after half time in Brisbane last week and that leaves punters wary of taking Adam Simpson’s side again. Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling had very little impact on that clash but this is during the day, meaning the dew factor will not play such a big role. Happy to roll the dice and take the Eagles again, if only for the genuine quality across their list. Jeremy McGovern (ankle) will need to pass a fitness test to play as West Coast aim to avoid three losses in a row for the first time since June 2018.

Head to Head: West Coast | $2.40 – Unibet
Win Margin: West Coast 1-39 | $2.75 – Sportsbet
Line: West Coast +8.5 | $1.91 – Bet365
Total Points: Over +129.5 | $1.88 – Sportsbet

St Kilda v Richmond

Venue: Marvel Stadium | Start: 4:35 PM

St Kilda Saints – Expected more from the Saints against Collingwood last week but the occasion was too much for them. That showed that Brett Ratten’s men are still a fair way off being a genuine contender and exposed a few deficiencies in their side. Returning to Docklands helps and expect the zip of Brad Hill and Zak Jones to have an impact. Will that be good enough to beat the Tigers? Unlikely.

Richmond Tigers – Richmond were surprisingly poor against the Hawks last week but should respond here. The Tigers have kicked five goals in two successive matches and Jack Riewoldt has now been held goalless two matches in a row. The last time that happened was in 2008! The Tigers have won their last four against the Saints, though, and should get Dustin Martin back. A strong response would not surprise.

Head to Head: Richmond | $1.45 – Sportsbet
Win Margin: Richmond 1-39 | $1.86 – Unibet
Line: Richmond -13.5 | $2.00 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Over +128.5 | $1.91 – Bet365

Essendon v Carlton

Venue: MCG | Start: 7:40 PM

Essendon Bombers – Major distraction in the build-up to this game could galvanise the Bombers – but it also could prove disruptive. Conor McKenna and James Stewart will not play and are in quarantine, with the Bombers’ Round 3 game against Melbourne postponed due to the Irishman’s positive test. Essendon has won both of its matches this year, against Fremantle and Sydney, but were not overly impressive in either of them. Dylan Shiel did catch the eye, though, and needs stopping by the Blues.

Carlton Blues – The Blues produced patches of good football against Richmond and Melbourne in Round 1 and 2 and then managed to string it together for long enough to win in Round 3 … just. The Blues fell in against the fast-finishing Cats but any win in Geelong is worth celebrating. Patrick Cripps was outstanding and simply must be tagged by the Bombers, but Carlton are on the improve and are certainly good enough to win this. Loved Eddie Betts’ game against the Cats, while Marc Pittonet is showing some fantastic glimpses of what he can do in the ruck.

Head to Head: Essendon | $1.78 – Bet365
Win Margin: Essendon 1-39 | $2.10 – Sportsbet
Line: Essendon -3.5 | $1.91 – Bet365
Total Points:

Gold Coast v Fremantle

Venue: Metricon Stadium | Start: 7:40 PM

Gold Coast Suns – Loving watching the Suns at the moment, with young gun Matt Rowell leading the charge. The No.1 pick in the 2019 AFL Draft has polled the maximum 10 votes in the AFL Coaches Association’s player of the year award in both of his last two matches and the likes of Brandon Ellis, Touk Miller, Lachie Weller and Ben King are providing great support across the ground. The win over West Coast in Round 2 was outstanding but Gold Coast’s Round 3 thumping of the Crows is hard to read. Were the Suns that good … or are the Crows that bad?

Fremantle Dockers – Freo are 0-3 without being disgraced but another gutsy defeat will not please coach Justin Longmuir. The Dockers need to step up and win a game and this might be the one for them. Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters are consistently producing but need more support from the club’s array of younger players. The Suns are full of momentum but Freo showed signs of what they can do against the Power last week. A more consistent performance can bring win number one.

Head to Head: Fremantle | $2.20 – Unibet
Win Margin: Fremantle 1-39 | $2.63 – Sportsbet
Line: Fremantle +6.5 | $2.00 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under +126.5 | $1.91 – Bet365

AFL Tipping – Sunday June 28

Brisbane v Adelaide

Venue: Gabba | Start: 1:05 PM

Brisbane Lions – The Lions look the lock of the weekend – but they are very short for a reason. The jury was out on Brisbane after bombing out of the finals last year and indifferent form to start 2020. Last week’s win over West Coast silenced many of the doubters, though, and it was achieved without captain Dayne Zorko who should return from an Achilles problem. Stefan Martin (hamstring) could also come back for a Lions team who have Lachie Neale dominating in the midfield. A big bag of goals from ex-Crow Charlie Cameron would not surprise here.

Adelaide Crows – Awful. It is the best word to describe Adelaide’s effort against Gold Coast last week and defender Daniel Talia acknowledged things were tough, saying he had not played in a team that had “been this non-competitive”. The Crows are 0-3 and new coach Matthew Nicks is feeling the heat, already. Just can’t see them getting close here.

Head to Head: Brisbane | $1.15 – Sportsbet
Win Margin: Brisbane 40+ | $2.30 – Sportsbet
Line: Brisbane -31.5 | $2.00 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under +136.5 | $1.91 – Bet365

Melbourne v Geelong

Venue: MCG | Start: 3:335 PM

Melbourne Demons – After last week’s game against Essendon was called off, the Demons will be fresh. Jake Melksham kicked four goals in a scratch match, while ex-Bomber Mitch Brown booted three and that may see him selected here. Melbourne played one brilliant quarter and three poor ones against the Blues in Round 2 but snuck over the line. They will need to be much better here. Clayton Oliver has a great record against the Cats, averaging 34 disposals per match against them.

Geelong Cats – A home loss to a previously winless Carlton in Round 3 was extremely disappointing for the Cats. What is more puzzling is that Geelong have not won two matches in a row in more than a year, despite reaching the preliminary final in 2019. The Cats lost last week … so they should emerge victorious in this one. Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett can improve on last week’s performance, while Brandan Parfitt (hamstring) could return. Geelong look too good for the Demons.

Head to Head: Geelong | $1.52 – Unibet
Win Margin: Geelong 1-39 | $2.00 – Sportsbet
Line: Geelong -10.5 | $2.00 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Under +137.5 | $1.91 – Bet365

Hawthorn v Nth Melbourne

Venue: Marvel Stadium | Start: 6:05 PM

Hawthorn Hawks – Still unsure what to make of the Hawks in 2020 after they easily accounted for Brisbane, were thrashed by Geelong and then comfortably beat Richmond. Alastair Clarkson’s men have won eight of their last 11, including wins over Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, West Coast, the Lions and the Tigers, so on their day, it seems they can beat anyone. The Hawks have dropped their last two to North at Docklands, though, and have won just one – against Gold Coast – at the venue since 2018. Suspect we will find out plenty about the Hawks on Sunday night.

North Melbourne Kangaroos – Terrific wins over St Kilda and the Giants made the Roos big favourites against Sydney at home and they lost. The Roos are just one of many teams who are hard to read but Ben Cunnington (back) should return in a big boost for Rhyce Shaw’s side. This game should be close and history agrees, with nine of the last 10 matches falling in the 1-39 bracket. The Roos might fall short here.

Head to Head: Hawthorn | $1.62 – Bet365
Win Margin: Hawthorn 1-39 | $2.75 – Sportsbet
Line: Hawthorn -8.5 | $2.00 – Ladbrokes
Total Points: Over +135.5 | $1.91 – Bet365