Premier League Betting Tips

We’ve got another full slate of Premier League action, before taking a week off for the International break. Man United vs Tottenham on Monday morning looks like the fixture of the week, with Leeds hosting Man City on Sunday as a close second. We’ll preview all 10 games on the card this weekend and identify where the value lies.

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EPL Tips – Saturday, October 3

Chelsea v Crystal Palace

Venue: Stamford Bridge, London | Start: 9:30 pm (AEST)

Chelsea are strong $1.40 home favourites here, with the Draw at $4.50 and Palace out at $7.50. The Blues sit just 9th in the table through 3 games, securing 1 of every result so far.

Palace have impressed in the early going, winning 2 of 3 to move into the top 6. Chelsea look to have the talent edge across the park and you’d expect them to bounce back here.

I’d expect a more routine performance as they cover the -1 handicap and win relatively convincingly 3-1. Chelsea/Chelsea at $2.10 offers some value as does the -1 handicap, also at $2.10.

I do expect both sides to score here and like the look of over 2.5 in what should be an attacking affair. Mason Mount got on the scoresheet for the Blues last week and I’m backing him to do the same here.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Chelsea -1
Anytime Goal: Mason Mount

EPL Tips – Sunday, October 4

Everton v Brighton & Hove Albion

Venue: Goodison Park, Liverpool | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Everton open as the early $1.72 favourites, with the Draw at $3.60 and Brighton out at $4.50. The Toffees have started the season with 3 straight wins, earning a spot in the top 3 for their troubles.

Brighton continues to mire in mid-table mediocrity, sitting in 12th place with 3 points from 3. Given the form they’ve shown thus far, it’s tough to look past Everton at current odds.

I’d expect somewhat of a routine win here and don’t mind the look of 2-0 at $9. $3 for covering the -1 handicap isn’t bad value, nor is them winning to nil.

On the totals side, I’m leaning towards under 2.5 and ‘no’ in the BTTS market. You’re paying a bit of a premium for him at the moment, but Calvert-Lewin is the most likely to score here.

Head to Head: Everton
Half-time/Full-time: Everton/Everton
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Everton -1
Anytime Goal: Calvert-Lewin

Leeds United v Manchester City

Venue: Elland Road, Leeds | Start: 3:30 am (AEST)

City open as $1.33 road favourites, with the Draw at $5 and Leeds at $7. Leeds have adjusted well to life in the top flight, winning 2 of their first 3 to sit in 7th place.

City had a poor loss to Leicester last time out, leaving them with 3 points from their 2 games so far. They are battling a fair amount of injuries, but you’d expect City to bounce back here.

The $1.33 price point doesn’t look like great value, but something like 2-1 at $8.50 in the scorecast could be a better option. I think a 1-goal City win is probably the most likely outcome, so I don’t mind taking Leeds at the +2 goal handicap.

Over 2.5 goals and BTTS do look fairly likely to occur, but you aren’t getting any value at the current numbers.

In terms of a goalscorer, I’ll back KDB to get back on the scoresheet here.

Head to Head: City
Half-time/Full-time: City/City
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Leeds +2
Anytime Goal: KDB

Newcastle United v Burnley

Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle | Start: 6:00 am (AEST)

Newcastle open as the $2.40 favourites here, with Burnley at $2.88 and the Draw at $3.10. The Magpies continue to perform under Steve Bruce, now top half of the table after 4 points from 3 games.

Burnley have struggled so far, losing their only two games to sit in the bottom 3. They’ve probably got a better shot at getting a point here and I don’t mind the Draw at $3.10.

Goals will probably be at a premium here, so 1-1 at $6 and 0-0 at $8 seem like the most likely outcomes. I’d probably take Burnley at the +1 handicap, also taking Draw/Draw at $4.50.

Under 2.5 goals is also a decent shout here, although it looks priced in at the current $1.54 number. Callum Wilson looks like the most likely to get on the scoresheet for those on the goalscorer markets.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Burnley +1
Anytime Goal: Callum Wilson

Leicester City v West Ham United

Venue: King Power Stadium, Leicester | Start: 10:00 pm (AEST)

Leicester open this game as convincing $1.62 favourites, with the Draw at $4 and West Ham out at $5. The Foxes have had a very strong start to the season, winning all 3 games and sitting top of the table.

West Ham find themselves mid-table, winning 1 of 3 to sit in 11th place. Leicester may not be as good if they can’t play on the counter here, but I’ll still take them at the current price.

I can see both sides getting on the scoresheet here, so 2-1 at $8 looks like decent scorecast value. Leicester winning by exactly 1 goal does look like the most likely result, so I’ll take the handicap draw at $3.50.

Leicester/Leicester at $2.50 and BTTS at $1.62 round out my selections for the conventional markets here.

In terms of a goal-scorer, it’s tough to look past penalty merchant Vardy to get on the scoresheet here.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Draw
Anytime Goal: Vardy

Southampton v West Bromwich Albion

Venue: St. Mary’s Stadium, Southampton | Start: 10:00 pm (AEST)

Southampton open as $1.72 favourites here, with the Draw at $3.75 and West Brom at $4.50. The Saints haven’t been great to start the season, sitting in 15th place with 1 win from 3.

West Brom picked up their first point of the season last time out, but ultimately should’ve beaten Chelsea after leading 3-0. The bookies have been high on Southampton this season and I’d expect them to win here at home.

They should be able to get after the West Brom defence here and I like the look of 2-0 at $9 in the scorecast market. Southampton/Southampton at $2.75 and Southampton -1 at $3 are both decent alternative bets.

On the total side, the lean is to under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market at a healthy $2. Danny Ings has been on fire of late and I’d back him as an anytime goalscorer here.

Head to Head: Southampton
Half-time/Full-time: Southampton/Southampton
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Saints -1
Anytime Goal: Ings

EPL Tips – Monday, October 5

Arsenal v Sheffield United

Venue: Emirates Stadium, London | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Another relatively uneven contest on paper, with Arsenal as $1.53 favourites, the Draw at $4, and Sheffield United out at $6.The Gunners have started relatively brightly this season, with 2 wins in 3 good enough for 5th in the table.

Sheffield United have struggled to replicate last season’s form, sitting in 2nd last having lost all 3 games. These two sides are probably closer than the odds suggest, but I’d still expect Arsenal to emerge with all 3 points.

A 1-goal Arsenal win at $3.30 seems fairly likely, with 2-1 at $8.50 and even 1-0 at $6.50 the two best scorecast options. I’d lean slightly towards 2-1 here, meaning that BTTS and over 2.5 goals are both firmly in play.

Arsenal have looked to feed Aubameyang and Lacazette all season, so both are value to bag another goal here.

Head to Head: Arsenal
Half-time/Full-time: Arsenal/Arsenal
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Draw
Anytime Goal: Lacazette

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Fulham

Venue: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton | Start: 12:00 am (AEST)

Wolves open as convincing $1.45 favourites here, with the Draw at $4 and Fulham out at $7. Neither side has started the season particularly well, sitting 16th and 20th in the table respectively.

Given Wolves have the much better track record at this level, I’ll back them to get back on track here. The $1.45 on offer is nothing special, but 2-0 at $6.50 and 2-1 at $8.50 both stick out as potential scorecast options.

Wolves/Wolves at $2.37 and Wolves -1 at $2.50 are additional ways to attack this angle. On the total side of things, I’ll go with under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ for BTTS, in line with my 2-0 score prediction from earlier.

Raul Jimenez has definitely become the talisman for Wolves now and is most likely to get on the scoresheet here.

Head to Head: Wolves
Half-time/Full-time: Wolves/Wolves
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Wolves -1
Anytime Goal: Jimenez

Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur

Venue: Old Trafford, Manchester | Start: 2:30 am (AEST)

United open as commanding $1.83 favourites here, with the Draw at $3.60 and Tottenham at $3.75. United haven’t pulled up any stumps this season, languishing in 14th with a 1-1 record from 2 games.

Spurs admittedly haven’t been great either, bagging 1 extra point but also playing an extra game. This looks to be a reasonable game to back the underdog, with the Draw at $3.60 sticking out as good value.

I like Spurs +1 at $1.83 in case they perform above expectations here and claim the outright win. A 1-1 result seems almost pre-ordained to occur, with Draw/Draw at $5.50 also offering some nice value.

Both sides are capable of getting on the scoresheet here, but I’m not necessarily confident in over 2.5 goals.

In terms of goal scorers, I’d lean towards Rashford and Kane for their respective sides.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Spurs +1
Anytime Goal: Kane

Aston Villa v Liverpool

Venue: Villa Park, Birmingham | Start: 5:15 am (AEST)

This looks like a bit of a snoozer to close the week, with Liverpool as $1.30 favourites, the Draw at $5, and Villa way out at $9.50.

Liverpool have had 3 wins from 3 this season, sitting just behind Leicester in 2nd. Villa have also been flawless to start, taking care of a relatively easy schedule to have 6 points from 6.

Liverpool have a lot of matchup advantages here and I’d probably expect them to grind out a 1 or 2-goal win. I wouldn’t back them -2 goals, but don’t mind $3.75 for them to win by exactly 2.

A 2-0 result at $7 is certainly in play, as is Liverpool/Liverpool at $1.83. Given that they’ll probably keep a clean sheet, under 2.5 and ‘no’ in BTTS are probably also +EV.

Salah and Mane have continued to bang in the goals this season and would be most likely to get on the scoresheet again here.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Liverpool/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Draw
Anytime Goal: Salah/Mane