Premier League Betting Tips

Fresh off of the international break, the Premier League returns here with a full slate of 10 fixtures. We’ve got some very exciting games this weekend, starting with the Merseyside derby on Saturday night. Then there’s the match of the round early on Sunday morning, with Man City playing host to Arsenal. We’ll preview all 10 fixtures this weekend and identify where the value lies.

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Saturday, October 17

Everton vs Liverpool

Venue: Goodison Park, Liverpool | Start: 10:30 pm AEST

Liverpool find themselves as $1.83 road favourites here, with Everton at $3.75 and the Draw out at $3.90. Liverpool enter this one after an absolutely atrocious loss, one where they let in a whopping 7 goals against Aston Villa.

They sit 5th in the table through 4 matches, having won 3 games with a neutral goal difference. Everton are the surprise package this season and they find themselves outright first, having won all 4 of their games this season.

I can see this trend ending here, with a highly motivated Liverpool side likely having enough to win this one. I’ll opt for Liverpool to win by exactly one goal at $3.75, with 2-1 at $8.50 sticking out as particularly good value.

I’ll go for BTTS and over 2.5 goals here, with Draw/Liverpool at $5 in the half-time/full-time market. In terms of a goal scorer, it’s tough to look past penalty merchant Mo Salah here.

Head to Head: Liverpool
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Liverpool
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Draw
Anytime Goal: Salah

Sunday, October 18

Chelsea vs Southampton

Venue: Stamford Bridge, London | Start: 01:00

Chelsea open as substantial $1.47 favourites here, with the Draw at $4.33 and Southampton out at $6. The Blues have had a mixed start to the season, but they sit in 7th place with 7 points from their 4 games.

Southampton finds themselves in 11th place, having won 2 and lost 2 games thus far. This is a game that Chelsea should be winning and I’m confident in backing them to do so here. I can see some decent offensive football being played here, with 2-1 and 3-1 sticking out as potential scorelines. For this reason, I’ll also opt for over 2.5 goals and BTTS on the totals side of things.

Chelsea/Chelsea at $2.25 isn’t bad, nor is Chelsea -1 goal at $2.30. Picking a goal scorer isn’t easy in this one, but my early lean is to go with Pulisic here.

Head to Head: Chelsea
Half-time/Full-time: Chelsea/Chelsea
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Chelsea -1
Anytime Goal: Pulisic

Man City vs Arsenal

Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester | Start: 03:30 am AEST

We’ve got the match of the round here, with Man City instilled as $1.44 favourites, the Draw at $4.60, and Arsenal out at $6.50. Man City have had a bit of a tough start to the season so far, sitting in 14th place with 4 points from 3 games.

Arsenal find themselves in the ever elusive top 4, having won 3 of their first 4 games. Man City are the better side when healthy, but their plethora of injuries makes me think Arsenal gets a result here.

The +1 handicap at $2.75 looks like fairly good value, as does the Draw at $4.60. I’ll opt for 1-1 in the scorecast market at $11, rounding that out with Draw/Draw at $8.

Both sides should get on the scoresheet here, but a 1-1 prediction means I’d lean towards under 2.5 goals. In terms of getting on the score sheet, I think Kevin De Bruyne is a relatively safe bet here.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Arsenal +1
Anytime Goal: Kevin De Bruyne

Newcastle vs Man United

Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle | Start: 06:00 am AEST

United open as $1.65 favourites here, with the Draw at $4 and Newcastle out at $5. It hasn’t been a good start to the season for the Reds, who sit in 16th place with 3 points from 3 games and a -6-goal difference. Newcastle continue to grind out results, now sitting in the top half with 7 points from 4 games.

United have been far from great this season, but this looks like a great opportunity to turn their fortunes around. $1.65 for the outright win is reasonable value, as is $3.50 for them to win by exactly 1 goal.

I think both 2-1 at $8 and 1-0 at $8.50 are both reasonable scorecast bets here and I’d probably lean towards the former. With that in mind, over 2.5 goals and BTTS both become decent alternative bets.

In terms of an anytime goalscorer here, it’s tough to look past Marcus Rashford.

Head to Head: United
Half-time/Full-time: United/United
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Draw
Anytime Goal: Rashford

Sheffield United vs Fulham

Venue: Bramall Lane, Sheffield | Start: 10:00am AEST

Sheffield United open as strong $2.05 favourites here, with the Draw at $3.30 and Fulham out at $3.70. Neither side has been particularly good this season, currently sitting in 19th and 20th place respectively.

Sheffield does have a slightly higher goal difference and did start out the season with much higher expectations. I’ll back the Blades to grab their first win of the season here, with 2-0 at $9.50 looking like a reasonable value.

I like the look of Sheffield -1 at $4 and Sheffield/Sheffield at $3.50 doesn’t look like bad value either. This shouldn’t be a high-scoring affair, so I’ll also go with under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

For an anytime goalscorer, I again like the look of Olly McBurnie here.

Head to Head: Sheffield United
Half-time/Full-time: Sheffield/Sheffield
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Sheffield -1
Anytime Goal: McBurnie

Monday, October 19

Crystal Palace vs Brighton

Venue: Selhurst Park, London | Start: 12:00 am AEST

Crystal Palace open this clash as the narrowest of $2.60 favourites, with Brighton at $2.70 and the Draw out at $3.10. Palace has had a middling start to the campaign, with 2 wins and 2 losses from their first 4 games.

This is slightly better than Brighton, who’ve won just 1 of 4 so far and sit in 15th place. I think there’s a bit of line value on Palace here and I’ll take them to secure the win.

A win by exactly 1 goal at $4.20 seems like reasonable value, with 1-0 at $8.50 the obvious scorecast play. We’d be hard-pressed for a high-scoring affair here, so I’ll stick with under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

I can see Wilf Zaha banging in a last-minute winner and he’d be my goal-scorer pick in this one.

Head to Head: Palace
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Palace
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Draw
Anytime Goal: Zaha

Tottenham vs West Ham

Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London | Start: 02:30 am AEST

Spurs open as comfortable $1.55 favourites here, with the Draw at $4.20 and West Ham out at $5.50. Mourinho’s side have looked solid so far, sitting in 6th place with 7 points and a +7 goal difference.

The season has also been relatively kind to West Ham, who are currently in 10th with 6 points from their 4 games. The 6-1 win over United last time out could be a turning point for this Spurs side and I think they build on that with a win here.

I’m not expecting a huge result, but a 2-1 or 3-1 win does seem relatively likely. I do like the look of Spurs/Spurs at $2.37, with no opinion on the current -1 handicap.

In what should be a high-scoring affair, I’ll go for BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Harry Kane and Michail Antonio both appear to be the most likely to score for their respective sides.

Head to Head: Spurs
Half-time/Full-time: Spurs/Spurs
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Spurs -1
Anytime Goal: Kane

Leicester vs Aston Villa

Venue: King Power Stadium, Leicester | Start: 5:15 am AEST

Leicester opens as $1.83 favourites here, with the Draw at $3.80 and Aston Villa out at $4. Both sides have had very good starts to the season, currently sitting in 3rd and 2nd place respectively.

Aston Villa have been especially impressive, yet to drop a point and fresh off a 7-2 spanking of Liverpool. As impressive as they’ve been so far, I feel as though the line value is on Leicester here and I’ll take them to win at current odds.

This should be another competitive affair and I’ll predict a 2-1 home win at $8.50. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both odds on here and that’s where I’d lean on the totals side.

Leicester/Leicester at $2.88 and Leicester by exactly 1 goal at $3.60 are both reasonable alternative bets. In terms of a goal scorer, it’s tough to look past Jamie Vardy on current form.

Head to Head: Leicester
Half-time/Full-time: Leicester/Leicester
Over/Under 2.5: Over
Both Teams Score: Yes
Handicap: Draw

Tuesday, October 20

West Brom vs Burnley

Venue: The Hawthorns, West Bromwich | Start: 03:30 am AEST

West Brom open as rare $2.40 favourites here, with Burnley at $2.87 and the Draw at $3.25. The Baggies have largely struggled so far, with a home draw against Chelsea their only positive result this season.

Things haven’t been any better for Burnley, who currently sit in the relegation zone with 0 points so far. I can see them getting a result here and will ultimately take the value on the draw.

The Burnley +1 handicap also looks particularly tempting, as does Draw/Draw at $4.50. I think we’re likely set for a 0-0 or 1-1 here, but I absolutely wouldn’t rule out the Sean Dyche special – a 1-0 smash and grab.

With that in mind, I’d lean towards under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market, also avoiding the anytime goal scorer’s market.

Head to Head: Draw
Half-time/Full-time: Draw/Draw
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Burnley +1
Anytime Goal: N/A

Leeds vs Wolves

Venue: Elland Road, Leeds | Start: 6:00 am AEST

Leeds are currently instilled as $2.40 favourites, with Wolves at $2.90 and the Draw out at $3.20. Leeds have started quite well since being promoted, securing 7 points from 4 games despite a tough schedule.

Wolves have had a middling start to the campaign, currently in 13th with 6 points so far. I think Leeds have been the better of these two sides this season and I intend to back them here.

I wouldn’t expect a huge result either way, but a 1-0 or 2-0 Leeds win seems like the most likely final outcome. Leeds/Leeds at $4 looks like fairly reasonable value, as does Leeds -1 at $5.

Goals will probably be hard to come by, so my leans would be towards under 2.5 goals and ‘no’ in the BTTS market.

If I had to pick a goal-scorer here, I’d probably lean towards Pablo Hernandez.

Head to Head: Leeds
Half-time/Full-time: Leeds/Leeds
Over/Under 2.5: Under
Both Teams Score: No
Handicap: Leeds -1
Anytime Goal: Hernandez